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JKHY:NASDAQJack Henry & Associates, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

$168.77

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) is trading just below its 50‑day moving average and near a key resistance level, while comfortably staying above the 20‑day SMA, indicating short‑term price stability. The RSI hovers around the neutral 50 mark and the MACD histogram is positive, supporting a modest bullish bias. Recent analyst sentiment has turned more favorable, highlighted by Wells Fargo upgrading the stock to Overweight and raising its price target, and the company announcing a dividend increase, which reinforces the appeal of its modest yield. Fundamentally, the firm delivers solid revenue growth, healthy operating margins and a strong ROE, with a payout ratio that leaves ample room for dividend sustainability. However, the market price is well above the discounted cash‑flow fair‑value estimate, suggesting the stock may be stretched in the near term. Volume trends are easing, and volatility remains elevated, underscoring the need for disciplined positioning.
Overall, the blend of steady earnings, a supportive dividend, and a favorable upgrade creates a compelling medium‑ to long‑term case, while the proximity to resistance and overvaluation caution against aggressive short‑term buying.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical resistance
  • Neutral trend and decreasing volume
  • Recent upgrade but overvaluation concerns

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent revenue growth and strong margins
  • Dividend increase and sustainable payout
  • Wells Fargo overweight rating and higher target price

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust ROE and cash‑flow generation
  • Strategic position in fintech services for banks and credit unions
  • Potential for continued earnings expansion despite current premium

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.90%
Profit Margin20.59%
P/E Ratio24.2
ROE24.28%
ROA13.35%
Debt/Equity3.11
P/B Ratio5.5
Op. Cash Flow$708.2M
Free Cash Flow$335.3M
Industry P/E33.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI51.3
Support$154.76
Resistance$172.84
MA 20$163.56
MA 50$173.94
MA 200$169.73
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$87.59
Target Price$203.21
Upside/Downside20.41%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.41%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.41
Volatility37.82%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.