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JAKK:NASDAQJAKKS Pacific, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-10 - not real-time

$21.89

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

JAKKS Pacific’s stock is trading just above its 20‑day simple moving average, with the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs essentially flat, indicating a neutral price trend. The RSI sits near the midpoint of its range and the MACD has turned bearish, while price is hugging a key support level and faces resistance just above the current range.
On the fundamentals side, the market price sits well above the discounted cash‑flow fair value estimate, suggesting the stock is overvalued despite a forward P/E that looks attractive. The dividend yield is high, but the payout ratio exceeds earnings, raising concerns about sustainability. Operating margins remain negative and debt levels are notable, although upcoming licensed figure launches with Nintendo and Warner Bros. could provide a short‑term sales boost. Overall, elevated 30‑day volatility and a beta above one point three signal heightened market risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and momentum
  • Price near immediate support with limited upside
  • Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Upcoming licensed product launches that could lift revenue
  • High dividend yield offset by unsustainable payout
  • Neutral technical stance with balanced support/resistance

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Persistent operating losses and high debt‑to‑equity
  • Valuation premium not justified by earnings growth
  • Elevated volatility and beta indicating higher systematic risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-5.80%
Profit Margin1.41%
P/E Ratio31.3
ROE3.34%
ROA1.92%
Debt/Equity20.67
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$32.0M
Free Cash Flow$13.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI49.2
Support$21.00
Resistance$23.56
MA 20$21.88
MA 50$21.93
MA 200$19.18
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index85.95

Valuation

Fair Value$16.42
Target Price$28.50
Upside/Downside30.20%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.63%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.36
Volatility41.14%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.