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JAGX:NASDAQJaguar Health, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$3.70

Latest Price

9/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Jaguar Health (JAGX) is trading well below its long‑term moving averages – the 20‑day SMA sits at 6.61 versus the current price of $3.70, while the 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs are 11.54 and 41.43 respectively, indicating a deep bearish bias. The RSI of 25 suggests the stock is oversold, and the MACD shows a modest bullish crossover (histogram +0.15), yet the overall trend remains bearish with a 30‑day volatility exceeding 240% and a beta of 3.2, reflecting extreme price swings. Fundamental metrics are stark: negative earnings (trailing EPS –$803.95), a max drawdown of -98.6%, and a balance sheet dominated by $43.6M of debt against under $1M cash, while the book value per share sits at –$99.20. Recent material news highlights a pending Nasdaq delisting decision and a reverse‑split approval, underscoring heightened listing risk, but the company also secured orphan‑drug designations for its short‑bowel syndrome program, offering a potential long‑run catalyst if clinical milestones are met.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish price relative to all moving averages
  • Pending Nasdaq listing uncertainty
  • Extremely high volatility and beta

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Continued negative cash flow and mounting debt
  • Lack of profitability and negative EPS
  • Uncertain clinical outcomes for pipeline

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Orphan‑drug designations could unlock value if trials succeed
  • Potential upside from successful commercialization of Mytesi or Crofelemer
  • Structural financial weakness limits upside potential

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-7.80%
P/E Ratio-0.7
ROA-61.46%
P/B Ratio-0.0
Op. Cash Flow$-23686000
Free Cash Flow$-14615375
Industry P/E26.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI25.2
Support$2.53
Resistance$15.23
MA 20$6.61
MA 50$11.54
MA 200$41.43
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Target Price$262.50
Upside/Downside6994.60%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta3.21
Volatility243.70%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.