JAGX:NASDAQJaguar Health, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$3.70
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Jaguar Health (JAGX) is trading well below its long‑term moving averages – the 20‑day SMA sits at 6.61 versus the current price of $3.70, while the 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs are 11.54 and 41.43 respectively, indicating a deep bearish bias. The RSI of 25 suggests the stock is oversold, and the MACD shows a modest bullish crossover (histogram +0.15), yet the overall trend remains bearish with a 30‑day volatility exceeding 240% and a beta of 3.2, reflecting extreme price swings. Fundamental metrics are stark: negative earnings (trailing EPS –$803.95), a max drawdown of -98.6%, and a balance sheet dominated by $43.6M of debt against under $1M cash, while the book value per share sits at –$99.20. Recent material news highlights a pending Nasdaq delisting decision and a reverse‑split approval, underscoring heightened listing risk, but the company also secured orphan‑drug designations for its short‑bowel syndrome program, offering a potential long‑run catalyst if clinical milestones are met.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bearish price relative to all moving averages
- Pending Nasdaq listing uncertainty
- Extremely high volatility and beta
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Continued negative cash flow and mounting debt
- Lack of profitability and negative EPS
- Uncertain clinical outcomes for pipeline
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Orphan‑drug designations could unlock value if trials succeed
- Potential upside from successful commercialization of Mytesi or Crofelemer
- Structural financial weakness limits upside potential
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-7.80%
P/E Ratio-0.7
ROA-61.46%
P/B Ratio-0.0
Op. Cash Flow$-23686000
Free Cash Flow$-14615375
Industry P/E26.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI25.2
Support$2.53
Resistance$15.23
MA 20$6.61
MA 50$11.54
MA 200$41.43
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61
Valuation
Target Price$262.50
Upside/Downside6994.60%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta3.21
Volatility243.70%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.