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ITSA4:BMFBOVESPAItausa SA Non-Cum Perp Pfd Registered Shs Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

R$12.90

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ITSA4 trades at a trailing PE of 8.49, dramatically below the industry average of 30.60, indicating a strong value tilt. The stock currently sits above its nearest support of 12.38 and below a resistance of 13.19, with the price at 12.90. Technical momentum is modestly positive: the MACD line has crossed above its signal (bullish) and the 30‑day volatility is elevated at 23.9%, while beta of 0.82 suggests slightly lower than market sensitivity. Volume is on an increasing trend, reinforcing the price action. Fundamentals show a modest revenue growth of 6.1%, a solid ROE of 18.4%, but a concerning debt‑to‑equity ratio of 13.3 and negative free cash flow, which temper the dividend sustainability despite a modest 0.75% yield. The market’s sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone, and the DCF upside estimate of 31.7% aligns with analyst targets around R$17.1.
Overall, the stock appears undervalued from a valuation standpoint, yet the high leverage and cash flow constraints introduce medium‑term risk. The combination of a low PE, bullish MACD, and rising volume supports a short‑to‑medium‑term buying case, while the debt profile suggests a more cautious stance for long‑term investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover
  • PE far below industry average
  • Increasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant upside potential (~31.7%)
  • Strong ROE and modest revenue growth
  • Low payout ratio supporting earnings retention

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High debt‑to‑equity ratio
  • Negative free cash flow
  • Diversified conglomerate structure providing stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.10%
Profit Margin203.02%
P/E Ratio8.5
ROE18.40%
ROA0.27%
Debt/Equity13.32
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash FlowR$499.0M
Free Cash FlowR$-1728249984
Industry P/E30.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI47.4
SupportR$12.38
ResistanceR$13.19
MA 20R$12.83
MA 50R$13.56
MA 200R$12.51
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair ValueR$0.03
Target PriceR$16.99
Upside/Downside31.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.75%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.82
Volatility23.91%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.