ITSA4:BMFBOVESPAItausa SA Non-Cum Perp Pfd Registered Shs Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time
R$12.90
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ITSA4 trades at a trailing PE of 8.49, dramatically below the industry average of 30.60, indicating a strong value tilt. The stock currently sits above its nearest support of 12.38 and below a resistance of 13.19, with the price at 12.90. Technical momentum is modestly positive: the MACD line has crossed above its signal (bullish) and the 30‑day volatility is elevated at 23.9%, while beta of 0.82 suggests slightly lower than market sensitivity. Volume is on an increasing trend, reinforcing the price action. Fundamentals show a modest revenue growth of 6.1%, a solid ROE of 18.4%, but a concerning debt‑to‑equity ratio of 13.3 and negative free cash flow, which temper the dividend sustainability despite a modest 0.75% yield. The market’s sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone, and the DCF upside estimate of 31.7% aligns with analyst targets around R$17.1.
Overall, the stock appears undervalued from a valuation standpoint, yet the high leverage and cash flow constraints introduce medium‑term risk. The combination of a low PE, bullish MACD, and rising volume supports a short‑to‑medium‑term buying case, while the debt profile suggests a more cautious stance for long‑term investors.
Overall, the stock appears undervalued from a valuation standpoint, yet the high leverage and cash flow constraints introduce medium‑term risk. The combination of a low PE, bullish MACD, and rising volume supports a short‑to‑medium‑term buying case, while the debt profile suggests a more cautious stance for long‑term investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD crossover
- PE far below industry average
- Increasing trading volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant upside potential (~31.7%)
- Strong ROE and modest revenue growth
- Low payout ratio supporting earnings retention
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio
- Negative free cash flow
- Diversified conglomerate structure providing stability
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.10%
Profit Margin203.02%
P/E Ratio8.5
ROE18.40%
ROA0.27%
Debt/Equity13.32
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash FlowR$499.0M
Free Cash FlowR$-1728249984
Industry P/E30.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI47.4
SupportR$12.38
ResistanceR$13.19
MA 20R$12.83
MA 50R$13.56
MA 200R$12.51
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair ValueR$0.03
Target PriceR$16.99
Upside/Downside31.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.75%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.82
Volatility23.91%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.