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ITRI:NASDAQItron, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-11 - not real-time

$94.19

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Itron, Inc. (ITRI) is trading around $94, which sits just above its 20‑day SMA (~$91) but below both the 50‑day (~$95) and 200‑day (~$111) averages, signaling a short‑term pullback within a longer‑term bearish bias. The MACD histogram remains positive and the signal line is bullish, while the RSI hovers near the neutral 50‑point mark, suggesting limited momentum upside. Volatility is elevated at over 40 % for the past month and beta exceeds 1.4, indicating the stock is more volatile than the market and prone to larger swings. On the fundamentals side, ITRI trades at a forward P/E of roughly 14× versus an industry average of 34×, delivers a solid ROE of about 19 % and maintains healthy operating margins, yet revenue is contracting (-6.7 %). The balance sheet shows a moderate debt load (Debt/Equity ~74 %) and the company does not pay a dividend.
Recent coverage initiation by Needham with a “Buy” rating and the upcoming Q1 earnings release add a catalyst component, while the Fear & Greed Index at “Extreme Greed” reflects strong market appetite. Despite the bearish technical backdrop, the valuation gap (price above DCF fair value but well below peer multiples) and the absence of dividend obligations make ITRI a candidate for value‑oriented investors looking for a medium‑to‑long‑term upside potential.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs indicating bearish bias
  • Decreasing volume trend reducing short‑term liquidity
  • Neutral momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) limiting upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive valuation relative to industry peers (low P/E, solid ROE)
  • Positive analyst coverage and upcoming earnings catalyst
  • Stable cash generation and moderate debt profile

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term secular demand for smart‑grid and utility infrastructure
  • Consistent operating margins and cash flow generation
  • Undervalued relative to growth prospects despite short‑term bearish technicals

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-6.70%
Profit Margin12.72%
P/E Ratio14.5
ROE19.26%
ROA5.49%
Debt/Equity73.86
P/B Ratio2.5
Op. Cash Flow$406.0M
Free Cash Flow$267.8M
Industry P/E33.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI54.1
Support$83.51
Resistance$95.88
MA 20$90.95
MA 50$94.62
MA 200$110.70
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.09

Valuation

Fair Value$75.87
Target Price$136.80
Upside/Downside45.24%
GradeFair
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.46
Volatility40.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.