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IMB:LSEImperial Brands PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-19 - not real-time

£2,870.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Imperial Brands trades at £2,870, well below its DCF-derived fair value of roughly £3,847, suggesting a material discount of about 15% to upside potential. The stock sits just above the 20‑day SMA (≈£2,765) but below the 200‑day SMA (≈£3,017), and technicals show a bullish MACD histogram despite a broader bearish trend and a decreasing volume profile. RSI is at 62, indicating momentum but also proximity to overbought levels, while support at £2,641 and resistance near £3,210 frame the near‑term price corridor.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid cash generation (free cash flow ~£2.5 bn) and a robust ROE of 37%, supporting a generous 5.8% dividend yield with a payout ratio around 75%. The forward P/E of 7.8 and modest revenue growth (~5%) underscore value characteristics, and a recent upgrade from Bank of America to “Buy” adds analyst confidence. However, the tobacco sector carries high regulatory risk and the share buy‑back program signals ongoing capital return pressure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with limited upside before resistance
  • Bullish MACD histogram but overall bearish trend
  • Decreasing volume suggesting caution

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF undervaluation of ~15% and attractive dividend yield
  • Analyst upgrade to Buy and favorable forward P/E
  • Strong cash flow coverage of dividend

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash generation and high ROE
  • Long‑term defensive consumer defensive positioning
  • Potential headroom from share buy‑backs and dividend growth

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.90%
Profit Margin8.96%
P/E Ratio13.5
ROE37.15%
ROA7.80%
Debt/Equity243.80
P/B Ratio5.6
Op. Cash Flow£3.5B
Free Cash Flow£2.5B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI62.0
Support£2,641.00
Resistance£3,210.00
MA 20£2,764.50
MA 50£2,772.03
MA 200£3,017.44
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.91

Valuation

Fair Value£3,846.92
Target Price£3,313.64
Upside/Downside15.46%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.81%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.12
Volatility19.01%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.