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ILMN:NASDAQIllumina, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$139.96

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Illumina’s stock is trading well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $80, with the current price near $140, indicating a premium valuation. The share price sits comfortably above the 20‑day SMA (≈136) and the 50‑day SMA (≈130), while still below the 200‑day SMA (≈120) trend line, supporting a bullish technical backdrop reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover and a neutral RSI at 56. Recent earnings beat expectations, delivering 4.8% YoY revenue growth to $1.09 B and a non‑GAAP EPS of $1.15, prompting the company to raise its full‑year guidance and lift analyst sentiment to a “Buy” consensus. High gross (68%) and operating margins, coupled with a strong ROE of 34%, underscore robust profitability, though the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (~95) and a P/B of 8, reflecting valuation pressure. Volatility remains elevated at ~43% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1, suggesting price swings may be pronounced. Overall, the stock benefits from solid growth fundamentals and positive market sentiment, but the valuation premium and execution risks warrant caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (price above SMA20/50, bullish MACD)
  • Q1 earnings beat and raised full‑year guidance
  • Strong profit margins and cash flow generation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue growth driven by genomics demand
  • High ROE and expanding operating cash flow
  • Market leadership in sequencing platforms

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation premium relative to DCF fair value
  • Elevated debt levels and regulatory exposure
  • Long‑term growth potential from expanding clinical and research markets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.80%
Profit Margin19.42%
P/E Ratio25.4
ROE33.82%
ROA8.68%
Debt/Equity95.07
P/B Ratio8.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.1B
Free Cash Flow$845.6M
Industry P/E27.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI56.1
Support$119.14
Resistance$150.20
MA 20$136.21
MA 50$129.62
MA 200$120.38
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.38

Valuation

Fair Value$79.93
Target Price$143.63
Upside/Downside2.62%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.07
Volatility42.78%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.