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IHG:LSEInterContinental Hotels Group PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$131.55

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

InterContinental Hotels Group is trading below its 20‑day simple moving average, with the price sitting near a key support level that has held in recent sessions. The RSI is hovering in the high‑30s, hinting at oversold conditions, while the MACD shows a bearish divergence that could limit short‑term upside. Despite these technical headwinds, the broader trend remains bullish and volume is increasing, suggesting buying interest is building. Fundamental metrics show modest revenue growth, solid operating margins and a dividend that has been raised, complemented by a $950 million share‑buyback program that underscores confidence in cash generation. However, the DCF‑derived fair value is far below the current market price, flagging a potential overvaluation. Analyst consensus is neutral, with a “hold” recommendation and a moderate upside potential of roughly eleven percent.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating limited near‑term momentum
  • RSI approaching oversold territory, suggesting a possible rebound
  • Price near a well‑tested support level that could act as a floor

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Earnings and revenue beat expectations with solid margin expansion
  • Dividend increase and a sizable share‑buyback signal strong cash flow
  • Improving RevPAR and positive sentiment from the recent earnings call

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Current market price appears significantly above DCF fair value
  • Cyclical nature of the lodging industry adds exposure to economic swings
  • Sustainable dividend yield and strong brand portfolio support stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.70%
Profit Margin14.61%
P/E Ratio27.0
ROA14.81%
P/B Ratio-7.2
Op. Cash Flow$898.0M
Free Cash Flow$673.6M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI39.7
Support$125.05
Resistance$150.90
MA 20$138.89
MA 50$138.22
MA 200$126.40
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Fair Value$46.98
Target Price$146.60
Upside/Downside11.44%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.44%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.39
Volatility31.85%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.