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IG:MILItalgas SpA Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

€10.13

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Italgas (IG.MI) trades at €10.13, comfortably above its near‑term support of €9.51 and below the resistance at €10.52, indicating limited upside in the immediate term. The stock sits on a bullish price framework with the 20‑day SMA (€10.24) marginally above the 50‑day SMA (€10.22) and both well above the 200‑day SMA (€9.35), while the RSI at 46.7 suggests the price is neither overbought nor oversold. Technical momentum is mixed – the MACD histogram is negative and flagged as bearish, but the overall trend direction remains bullish and volatility is moderate at ~21% over the past 30 days.
Fundamentally, the company appears undervalued with a trailing P/E of 14.3 versus an industry average of 21.8, and a forward P/E of 12.8, supporting a valuation grade of undervalued. The dividend yield of 4.29% and a payout ratio of ~54% provide attractive income, though a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 263% raises questions about long‑term leverage. Recent earnings commentary notes a 44% YoY revenue surge in Q1 2026, underscoring growth potential within a regulated utility framework.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support level with limited near‑term upside
  • Mixed MACD signal versus overall bullish SMA alignment
  • Upcoming earnings release confirming Q1 growth

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to industry P/E multiples
  • Strong dividend yield and reasonable payout ratio
  • Positive earnings momentum and target median price of €10.40

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Regulated gas distribution business provides stable cash flows
  • Low beta (0.24) indicating defensive stock characteristics
  • Attractive dividend yield supporting total return over time

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth1.00%
Profit Margin18.35%
P/E Ratio14.3
ROE19.50%
ROA4.86%
Debt/Equity263.31
P/B Ratio2.7
Industry P/E21.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI46.7
Support€9.51
Resistance€10.52
MA 20€10.24
MA 50€10.22
MA 200€9.35
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.71

Valuation

Target Price€10.58
Upside/Downside4.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.29%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.24
Volatility21.28%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.