ICBP:IDXPT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk Analysis

Technical outlook: The stock is trading at IDR 6,350, well below the 20‑day SMA of 6,650, the 50‑day SMA of 6,917 and the 200‑day SMA of 8,114, confirming a bearish price momentum. RSI sits at 41.5, indicating neither extreme oversold nor overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD signal is flagged as bearish. Volatility is elevated at 43% over the past 30 days, though beta is modest at 0.35, suggesting price swings are more company‑specific than market‑driven. Recent news flags continued rupiah weakness, adding currency pressure that could compress margins on imported inputs.
Fundamental outlook: Despite the short‑term technical headwinds, the company shows solid fundamentals – revenue growth of 7.6%, gross margin of 34.8% and operating margin of 20.8%. Valuation metrics are attractive: P/E ≈ 8×, P/B ≈ 1.36× and a dividend yield of 3.94% with a payout ratio under 32%. The DCF‑derived fair value of roughly IDR 8,470 implies an upside of about 58% from current levels, and analysts’ consensus remains a “buy” with a median target near IDR 10,150. Strong cash generation (free cash flow > IDR 6.2 trn) and a manageable debt‑to‑equity of 62% support dividend sustainability and long‑term resilience.