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IBM:NYSEInternational Business Machines Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-09 - not real-time

$238.90

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

IBM is trading well beneath its short‑ and long‑term moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop, while the RSI remains in the low‑40s, suggesting limited upside momentum in the near term. However, the MACD histogram has turned positive and the MACD line sits above its signal, providing a subtle bullish divergence that could precede a short‑term bounce. The stock also enjoys a solid support zone just above the low‑230s, with the next resistance near the mid‑250s, framing a relatively tight trading range. Fundamentally, the company delivers robust revenue growth, high operating margins, and an impressive ROE that outpaces many peers, while its forward‑looking DCF valuation points to a sizable upside of over 30%. The dividend yield near 3% with a payout ratio around 60% is comfortably covered by free cash flow, underscoring dividend sustainability.
Recent headlines highlight IBM’s strategic moves in generative AI through a partnership with Deepgram and a pioneering quantum‑centric supercomputing architecture, both of which could catalyze future top‑line expansion. At the same time, a noted downgrade from Morgan Stanley, which trimmed its price target, introduces a note of caution. Balancing these forces, the stock appears undervalued relative to its sector peers, offering a compelling blend of value and growth attributes for investors with a medium‑ to long‑term horizon.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages and decreasing volume
  • MACD bullish crossover offering limited upside
  • Support level providing downside protection

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued DCF fair value versus current price
  • Strong revenue growth and high ROE
  • AI and quantum initiatives expanding future addressable market

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend yield with solid cash flow coverage
  • Strategic partnerships driving long‑term technology leadership
  • Fundamental strength and undervaluation relative to industry peers

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.20%
Profit Margin15.69%
P/E Ratio21.4
ROE35.16%
ROA5.44%
Debt/Equity197.33
P/B Ratio6.9
Op. Cash Flow$13.2B
Free Cash Flow$13.2B
Industry P/E33.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI41.2
Support$233.75
Resistance$258.28
MA 20$244.74
MA 50$257.64
MA 200$276.75
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.48

Valuation

Fair Value$261.84
Target Price$313.40
Upside/Downside31.18%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.78%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.85
Volatility27.73%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.