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IBKR:NASDAQInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$86.12

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Interactive Brokers is trading at $86.12, comfortably above its 20‑day (81.96), 50‑day (74.81) and 200‑day (69.61) moving averages, with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI of 63.7 indicating momentum without being overbought. The firm posted a 16.8% revenue growth year‑over‑year, maintains an industry‑leading gross margin of 93% and operating margin of 77%, and generated $6.45 B in revenue for the latest period. However, its forward PE of 30.2 versus an industry average of 16.7, and a DCF‑derived fair value of $234.22 imply a substantial valuation premium (current price exceeds fair value by ~14%). Recent news highlights record net revenues, a 19.6% YoY jump in Q1 sales to $1.67 B, and the launch of a new prediction‑market platform, all supporting the bullish price action that has outperformed the broader market (+17% month‑to‑date).
Given the high 30‑day volatility (37%) and a beta near 2, the stock carries elevated market risk, but its strong cash position, low dividend payout (0.41% yield, 13.7% payout ratio), and continued product innovation suggest the upside potential may be limited unless valuation compresses toward its DCF target.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price is near the technical resistance level of $88.44
  • Bullish momentum but elevated short‑term volatility
  • Strong quarterly revenue beat and product launches

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue growth and high operating margins
  • Continued innovation (prediction‑market platform, expanded crypto offering)
  • Market positioning in a high‑margin brokerage niche

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation premium relative to DCF and industry peers
  • Robust cash balance offsetting high debt‑to‑equity ratio
  • Potential regulatory headwinds in the broker‑dealer sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth16.80%
Profit Margin16.11%
P/E Ratio37.0
ROE23.56%
ROA2.42%
Debt/Equity152.19
P/B Ratio6.9
Op. Cash Flow$16.8B
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI63.7
Support$74.62
Resistance$88.44
MA 20$81.96
MA 50$74.81
MA 200$69.61
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Fair Value$234.22
Target Price$86.00
Upside/Downside-0.14%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.41%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.95
Volatility37.13%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.