IBKR:NASDAQInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$86.12
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Interactive Brokers is trading at $86.12, comfortably above its 20‑day (81.96), 50‑day (74.81) and 200‑day (69.61) moving averages, with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI of 63.7 indicating momentum without being overbought. The firm posted a 16.8% revenue growth year‑over‑year, maintains an industry‑leading gross margin of 93% and operating margin of 77%, and generated $6.45 B in revenue for the latest period. However, its forward PE of 30.2 versus an industry average of 16.7, and a DCF‑derived fair value of $234.22 imply a substantial valuation premium (current price exceeds fair value by ~14%). Recent news highlights record net revenues, a 19.6% YoY jump in Q1 sales to $1.67 B, and the launch of a new prediction‑market platform, all supporting the bullish price action that has outperformed the broader market (+17% month‑to‑date).
Given the high 30‑day volatility (37%) and a beta near 2, the stock carries elevated market risk, but its strong cash position, low dividend payout (0.41% yield, 13.7% payout ratio), and continued product innovation suggest the upside potential may be limited unless valuation compresses toward its DCF target.
Given the high 30‑day volatility (37%) and a beta near 2, the stock carries elevated market risk, but its strong cash position, low dividend payout (0.41% yield, 13.7% payout ratio), and continued product innovation suggest the upside potential may be limited unless valuation compresses toward its DCF target.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price is near the technical resistance level of $88.44
- Bullish momentum but elevated short‑term volatility
- Strong quarterly revenue beat and product launches
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained revenue growth and high operating margins
- Continued innovation (prediction‑market platform, expanded crypto offering)
- Market positioning in a high‑margin brokerage niche
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Valuation premium relative to DCF and industry peers
- Robust cash balance offsetting high debt‑to‑equity ratio
- Potential regulatory headwinds in the broker‑dealer sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth16.80%
Profit Margin16.11%
P/E Ratio37.0
ROE23.56%
ROA2.42%
Debt/Equity152.19
P/B Ratio6.9
Op. Cash Flow$16.8B
Industry P/E16.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI63.7
Support$74.62
Resistance$88.44
MA 20$81.96
MA 50$74.81
MA 200$69.61
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61
Valuation
Fair Value$234.22
Target Price$86.00
Upside/Downside-0.14%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.41%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.95
Volatility37.13%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.