IBIT:NASDAQiShares Bitcoin Trust Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-21 - not real-time
$43.82
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF trades at $43.81, with its moving averages tangled rather than clearly stacked — a neutral trend structure. Over a rolling month the price has gained 20.9%. Relative strength is 79.8 — overbought — and the MACD signal is bullish. The recent range runs from support at $35.29 up to resistance at $44.03.
The 0.25% expense ratio is competitive for its category, and the fund manages $46.52B in assets.
Risk comes out at 8 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 37.5%, a beta of 1.69 and a maximum drawdown of 53.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 2/10.
The 0.25% expense ratio is competitive for its category, and the fund manages $46.52B in assets.
Risk comes out at 8 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 37.5%, a beta of 1.69 and a maximum drawdown of 53.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 2/10.
Top Market Events
IBIT is showing early signs of recovery after defending deep Fibonacci support, with bullish momentum improving as...MSTR stock has lost 12 percentage points more than BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF IBIT in 2026: mNAV premium...Microsoft and our third-party vendors use cookies to store and access information such as unique IDs and personal...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- RSI at 79.8 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 43.00
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- RSI at 79.8 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 43.00
- MACD momentum is positive
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Beta of 1.69 versus the benchmark
- Maximum drawdown of 53.3%
- RSI at 79.8 signals overbought conditions
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.25%
AUM$46.5B
Inception Date2024-01-05
Avg Daily Volume50,049,810
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI79.8
Support$35.29
Resistance$44.03
MA 20$37.01
MA 50$36.29
MA 200$43.00
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.8
Risk Assessment
Beta1.69
Volatility37.46%
Sector RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.