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IBIT:NASDAQiShares Bitcoin Trust analysis

Data as of Oct 3, 2026 - not real-time

Latest price
$47.73
Risk: high
8/10High risk

Summary

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF trades at $47.73, with its short-term moving averages stacked above the longer-term ones — a bullish trend structure. Over a rolling month the price has gained 15.8%. Relative strength is 63.7 — approaching overbought — and the MACD signal is bearish. The recent range runs from support at $42.37 up to resistance at $49.39.
The 0.25% expense ratio is competitive for its category, and the fund manages $61.44B in assets.
Risk comes out at 8 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 41.6%, a beta of 1.74 and a maximum drawdown of 53.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 2/10.

Top market events

  • Neil Patel, The Motley Fool Sep 3, 2026 0 Image source: Getty Images.
  • iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT last closed at $47.
  • MSTR stock has lost 12 percentage points more than BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF IBIT in 2026: mNAV premium...

Market outlook

Short term

< 1 year

Neutral

Model confidence3/103 out of 10

Key factors

  • Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
  • Trading above the 200-day average of 41.92
  • MACD momentum is negative

Medium term

1–3 years

Neutral

Model confidence3/103 out of 10

Key factors

  • Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
  • Trading above the 200-day average of 41.92
  • 30-day volatility of 41.6%

Long term

> 3 years

Neutral

Model confidence2/102 out of 10

Key factors

  • 30-day volatility of 41.6%
  • Beta of 1.74 versus the benchmark
  • Maximum drawdown of 53.3%

Key metrics

Fund metrics

Expense Ratio0.25%
AUM$61.4B
Inception Date2024-01-05
Avg Daily Volume45,783,320
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%

Technical analysis

TrendBullish
RSI63.7
Support$42.37
Resistance$49.39
MA 20$46.01
MA 50$41.97
MA 200$41.92
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.09

Risk assessment

Beta1.74
Volatility41.56%
Sector RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.