HWM:NYSEHowmet Aerospace Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-09 - not real-time
$250.00
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Howmet Aerospace is benefitting from robust commercial aerospace demand, delivering double‑digit revenue growth and operating margins that sit comfortably above industry norms. Return on equity remains exceptionally strong, and the modest dividend payout backed by solid cash flow suggests sustainability.
However, the stock trades at a price far above its intrinsic estimate, with a price‑to‑earnings multiple that dwarfs the sector average and a discounted cash‑flow valuation indicating a sizeable downside. Technical signals are mixed: the price sits near a key resistance level, the MACD histogram is positive, but volume has been tapering and recent volatility is elevated. Analyst coverage is bullish with upside forecasts, yet the market sentiment of extreme greed adds a cautionary note. The overall picture points to a high‑quality growth engine that is currently priced for perfection, warranting a measured approach.
However, the stock trades at a price far above its intrinsic estimate, with a price‑to‑earnings multiple that dwarfs the sector average and a discounted cash‑flow valuation indicating a sizeable downside. Technical signals are mixed: the price sits near a key resistance level, the MACD histogram is positive, but volume has been tapering and recent volatility is elevated. Analyst coverage is bullish with upside forecasts, yet the market sentiment of extreme greed adds a cautionary note. The overall picture points to a high‑quality growth engine that is currently priced for perfection, warranting a measured approach.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price hovering at a technical resistance zone
- high valuation relative to fundamentals
- declining volume and elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- sustained double‑digit revenue growth and strong margins
- analyst price targets indicating upside
- low payout ratio supporting dividend sustainability
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- long‑term aerospace and defense demand fundamentals
- potential valuation compression as market expectations normalize
- steady cash generation and modest dividend yield
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth14.60%
Profit Margin18.27%
P/E Ratio67.6
ROE30.44%
ROA12.13%
Debt/Equity60.02
P/B Ratio18.8
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$917.2M
Industry P/E30.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI58.6
Support$220.51
Resistance$253.91
MA 20$237.13
MA 50$238.60
MA 200$204.46
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.09
Valuation
Fair Value$50.48
Target Price$277.52
Upside/Downside11.01%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.18%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.99
Volatility37.31%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.