HUB:ASXHUB24 Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
A$84.85
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
HUB24 Limited posted a strong $4.0bn net inflow in Q3 FY26, driving a 22% increase in funds under administration and supporting a revenue growth rate of roughly 26%. The company’s fundamentals remain robust with a gross margin above 93% and a sustainable dividend yield of 0.85% backed by a payout ratio under 45%.
However, the market price of AU$84.85 sits well above the DCF‑derived fair value of AU$48.83, reflecting a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 66× versus an industry average of 17×**.** Technical signals show a bearish overall trend, with the price trailing the 200‑day SMA and volatility spiking above 40%**.** While the MACD histogram turned positive, the broader momentum remains weak, suggesting near‑term downside risk despite the recent inflows.
However, the market price of AU$84.85 sits well above the DCF‑derived fair value of AU$48.83, reflecting a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 66× versus an industry average of 17×**.** Technical signals show a bearish overall trend, with the price trailing the 200‑day SMA and volatility spiking above 40%**.** While the MACD histogram turned positive, the broader momentum remains weak, suggesting near‑term downside risk despite the recent inflows.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical trend with price below the 200‑day SMA
- High 30‑day volatility (~40%)
- Current price significantly above DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and 22% fund inflow expansion
- High gross and operating margins supporting cash generation
- Valuation premium remains, but dividend sustainability adds income appeal
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Durable platform business with recurring revenue
- Regulatory environment stable for Australian capital‑markets firms
- Overvaluation risk persists, requiring price correction for upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth26.20%
Profit Margin23.39%
P/E Ratio66.3
ROE19.73%
ROA15.82%
Debt/Equity11.45
P/B Ratio12.7
Op. Cash FlowA$160.6M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI54.8
SupportA$77.10
ResistanceA$85.97
MA 20A$81.93
MA 50A$83.61
MA 200A$96.63
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.71
Valuation
Fair ValueA$48.83
Target PriceA$101.02
Upside/Downside19.06%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.85%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.39
Volatility40.34%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.