HLT:NYSEHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-08 - not real-time
$302.16
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Hilton Worldwide is trading around $302, far above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $83, implying a substantial premium. The stock’s trailing P/E sits near 49 and the RSI hovers at the 50‑mark, while the MACD histogram is positive, suggesting modest bullish momentum but no decisive trend. Price action is squeezed between a support level near $289 and resistance around $309, and the share price has slipped about 8.7% since the last earnings release, underperforming the broader market.
Fundamentally, the company generated $4.95 B in revenue with 7% YoY growth, maintains strong gross (≈78%) and operating margins (≈46%), and produces robust operating and free cash flow. The dividend yield is modest at 0.2% with a low payout ratio (~10%), supporting dividend sustainability, yet the balance sheet shows high debt and a negative book value per share, which adds a layer of financial caution.
Fundamentally, the company generated $4.95 B in revenue with 7% YoY growth, maintains strong gross (≈78%) and operating margins (≈46%), and produces robust operating and free cash flow. The dividend yield is modest at 0.2% with a low payout ratio (~10%), supporting dividend sustainability, yet the balance sheet shows high debt and a negative book value per share, which adds a layer of financial caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Recent 8.7% price decline post‑earnings
- Technical indicators are neutral with support near $289
- Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
- Robust cash flow generation supporting franchise expansion
- Improving forward P/E (~29) indicating potential valuation compression
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Global brand portfolio and franchise model provide scalable growth
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Resilient demand for travel and lodging despite cyclical exposure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth7.00%
Profit Margin29.41%
P/E Ratio49.3
ROA10.04%
P/B Ratio-12.9
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Free Cash Flow$1.7B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI50.0
Support$289.52
Resistance$309.05
MA 20$299.25
MA 50$305.33
MA 200$281.22
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.64
Valuation
Fair Value$83.17
Target Price$328.20
Upside/Downside8.62%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.20%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.87
Volatility24.89%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.