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HLMN:NASDAQHillman Solutions Corp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$7.72

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Hillman Solutions is trading well below its short‑term moving averages, with price action still in a bearish zone despite a modestly bullish MACD histogram and increasing volume. The stock’s RSI sits in a neutral‑to‑mid range, suggesting limited upside momentum in the near term, while the high beta and 30‑day volatility underscore a propensity for sharp moves. Fundamentally, the company carries a high price‑to‑earnings multiple relative to its industry peers, thin operating margins, and a heavy debt load, yet forward earnings estimates imply a much lower valuation multiple and a sizable upside potential reflected in analyst price targets. The recent earnings miss, both on earnings and revenue, adds pressure, but the extreme‑greed sentiment in the market may be inflating short‑term demand.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price below short‑term moving averages
  • negative earnings surprise
  • high current valuation relative to peers

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • potential upside from forward earnings multiple
  • increasing trading volume
  • persistent debt burden limiting margin improvement

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • significant upside indicated by analyst target prices
  • industry‑wide demand for hardware and tools
  • forward earnings outlook suggests a more reasonable valuation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.00%
Profit Margin2.30%
P/E Ratio42.9
ROE2.99%
ROA2.88%
Debt/Equity66.80
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$86.3M
Free Cash Flow$24.5M
Industry P/E30.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI56.1
Support$6.96
Resistance$7.82
MA 20$7.37
MA 50$7.91
MA 200$8.81
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Target Price$12.13
Upside/Downside57.06%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.14
Volatility30.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.