HD:NYSEHome Depot, Inc. (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-07 - not real-time
$321.05
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind The Home Depot, Inc. is bearish at $321.05, with short-term averages lagging the long-term ones. The last 30 days have lost 3.6%. RSI sits at 37.8, which reads as approaching oversold, and MACD momentum is bearish. Recent trading has carved out support near $315.21 and resistance around $358.36.
Valuation screens as overvalued, on a P/E of 22.5 with no clean sector comparison available. The average analyst target implies 17.6% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 5.7% on a 8.4% profit margin. The 2.90% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 24.4%, a beta of 0.70 and a maximum drawdown of 29.7%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on sell — conviction 4 out of 10.
Valuation screens as overvalued, on a P/E of 22.5 with no clean sector comparison available. The average analyst target implies 17.6% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 5.7% on a 8.4% profit margin. The 2.90% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 24.4%, a beta of 0.70 and a maximum drawdown of 29.7%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on sell — conviction 4 out of 10.
Top Market Events
Lawrence Rothman, CFA, The Motley Fool Sun, September 6, 2026 at 8:25 AM UTC 0 Image source: Getty Images.Priced for a recovery too soon, stick to the sidelines ahead of earnings.Home Depot stock has eased slightly ahead of the next earnings update, while analysts continue to ra
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 343.90
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 343.90
- Analyst targets imply +17.6% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply +17.6% versus the current price
- P/E ratio of 22.5
- Return on equity of 104.3%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.70%
Profit Margin8.41%
P/E Ratio22.5
ROE104.30%
ROA12.14%
Debt/Equity380.26
P/B Ratio19.3
Op. Cash Flow$18.8B
Free Cash Flow$10.8B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI37.8
Support$315.21
Resistance$358.36
MA 20$334.66
MA 50$339.12
MA 200$343.90
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair Value$112.89
Target Price$377.50
Upside/Downside17.58%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.90%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.70
Volatility24.44%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.