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HD:NYSEHome Depot, Inc. (The) Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-07 - not real-time

$310.78

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The Home Depot is trading at $310.78, well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, signaling a short‑term bearish technical stance. However, the MACD histogram is positive and the latest earnings beat, with revenue up 4.8% YoY and non‑GAAP EPS marginally above consensus, provide a cushion of momentum. The DCF model implies a fair value around $102, and the upside/downside metric suggests roughly a 19% upside from current levels, indicating the stock may be undervalued relative to intrinsic estimates.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid cash generation, a 3% dividend yield with a 65% payout ratio, and consistent revenue growth, though its balance sheet is leveraged with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Analyst consensus remains bullish (Buy, Overweight) with median price targets near $374, and the market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone, supporting a favorable risk‑adjusted outlook for medium‑ to long‑term investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support at $289
  • Bearish trend indicated by moving averages
  • Positive MACD histogram and earnings beat

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 4.8% YoY
  • Dividend yield of 3% with sustainable payout
  • Upside potential of ~19% versus DCF fair value

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong brand and market leadership in home improvement
  • Stable free cash flow supporting dividend and buybacks
  • Long‑term valuation upside despite high debt levels

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.80%
Profit Margin8.41%
P/E Ratio22.1
ROE128.38%
ROA12.52%
Debt/Equity459.36
P/B Ratio22.3
Op. Cash Flow$18.0B
Free Cash Flow$10.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI44.8
Support$289.10
Resistance$324.00
MA 20$310.30
MA 50$322.97
MA 200$362.32
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Valuation

Fair Value$102.45
Target Price$370.18
Upside/Downside19.11%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.00%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.74
Volatility25.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.