HD:NYSEHome Depot, Inc. (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-07 - not real-time
$310.78
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The Home Depot is trading at $310.78, well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, signaling a short‑term bearish technical stance. However, the MACD histogram is positive and the latest earnings beat, with revenue up 4.8% YoY and non‑GAAP EPS marginally above consensus, provide a cushion of momentum. The DCF model implies a fair value around $102, and the upside/downside metric suggests roughly a 19% upside from current levels, indicating the stock may be undervalued relative to intrinsic estimates.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid cash generation, a 3% dividend yield with a 65% payout ratio, and consistent revenue growth, though its balance sheet is leveraged with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Analyst consensus remains bullish (Buy, Overweight) with median price targets near $374, and the market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone, supporting a favorable risk‑adjusted outlook for medium‑ to long‑term investors.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid cash generation, a 3% dividend yield with a 65% payout ratio, and consistent revenue growth, though its balance sheet is leveraged with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Analyst consensus remains bullish (Buy, Overweight) with median price targets near $374, and the market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone, supporting a favorable risk‑adjusted outlook for medium‑ to long‑term investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support at $289
- Bearish trend indicated by moving averages
- Positive MACD histogram and earnings beat
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of 4.8% YoY
- Dividend yield of 3% with sustainable payout
- Upside potential of ~19% versus DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong brand and market leadership in home improvement
- Stable free cash flow supporting dividend and buybacks
- Long‑term valuation upside despite high debt levels
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.80%
Profit Margin8.41%
P/E Ratio22.1
ROE128.38%
ROA12.52%
Debt/Equity459.36
P/B Ratio22.3
Op. Cash Flow$18.0B
Free Cash Flow$10.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.8
Support$289.10
Resistance$324.00
MA 20$310.30
MA 50$322.97
MA 200$362.32
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index83.02
Valuation
Fair Value$102.45
Target Price$370.18
Upside/Downside19.11%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.00%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.74
Volatility25.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.