GTES:NYSEGates Industrial Corporation plc Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time
$27.69
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Gates Industrial (GTES) shows bullish technical momentum – the 20‑day SMA (≈$25.78) sits above the 50‑day SMA, the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI is at 63.6, suggesting continued upward pressure. The stock trades at $27.69, comfortably above the identified support of $22.86 and below resistance near $28.18, with a calculated upside of about 12% to the target price.
Fundamentally, the company’s valuation appears stretched: a forward PE of 14.8 versus a trailing PE of 29.1, a DCF fair value of $13.03 (well below market), and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 63.5% raise concerns, while the lack of dividend and modest 0.4% revenue growth limit upside. The high 30‑day volatility (≈40%) and beta (~1.6) indicate a risk‑on environment, further underscored by an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment.
Fundamentally, the company’s valuation appears stretched: a forward PE of 14.8 versus a trailing PE of 29.1, a DCF fair value of $13.03 (well below market), and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 63.5% raise concerns, while the lack of dividend and modest 0.4% revenue growth limit upside. The high 30‑day volatility (≈40%) and beta (~1.6) indicate a risk‑on environment, further underscored by an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and RSI indicate strong momentum
- Price positioned above strong support at $22.86 with room to test resistance at $28.18
- Decreasing volume but still above average daily volume, limiting immediate downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Valuation gap: market price well above DCF fair value of $13.03
- Modest revenue growth and stable margins provide limited upside
- Analyst target median around $31 suggests potential but not guaranteed appreciation
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- High debt‑to‑equity (63.5%) and low cash coverage increase financial risk
- No dividend and low ROE (≈7.7%) limit total return potential
- Overvaluation relative to fundamentals and DCF suggests price correction risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth0.40%
Profit Margin7.23%
P/E Ratio29.1
ROE7.68%
ROA4.53%
Debt/Equity63.47
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$501.0M
Free Cash Flow$364.1M
Industry P/E31.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI63.6
Support$22.86
Resistance$28.18
MA 20$25.78
MA 50$25.46
MA 200$24.29
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.14
Valuation
Fair Value$13.03
Target Price$31.08
Upside/Downside12.25%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.61
Volatility39.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.