GSM:NASDAQFerroglobe PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time
$3.84
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading below its longer‑term moving averages, with the 20‑day SMA beneath the 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs, confirming a bearish trend. Momentum indicators such as the RSI sit in the lower‑mid range and the MACD line remains under its signal line, reinforcing downside pressure. Volume has been tapering, and price sits near the identified support level while facing a clear resistance barrier.
Fundamental outlook: The company reports negative operating margins, a negative free‑cash‑flow profile and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio, suggesting earnings and cash‑generation challenges. Although a modest dividend is being paid, the payout ratio is low but the sustainability is questionable given the cash‑flow shortfall. Valuation models place intrinsic value well below the current market price, indicating that the stock appears overvalued relative to its fundamentals.
Fundamental outlook: The company reports negative operating margins, a negative free‑cash‑flow profile and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio, suggesting earnings and cash‑generation challenges. Although a modest dividend is being paid, the payout ratio is low but the sustainability is questionable given the cash‑flow shortfall. Valuation models place intrinsic value well below the current market price, indicating that the stock appears overvalued relative to its fundamentals.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators and weakening volume
- Current price near support with limited upside
- Negative earnings and cash‑flow pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Potential stabilization of commodity prices
- Continued dividend yield may attract income‑focused investors
- High leverage and ongoing cash‑flow deficits
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental restructuring needed to improve profitability
- Cyclical exposure to metals could benefit from future demand recovery
- Elevated volatility and beta suggest sustained market risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth13.20%
Profit Margin-8.09%
P/E Ratio7.7
ROE-16.17%
ROA-2.77%
Debt/Equity40.63
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$26.5M
Free Cash Flow$-8502625
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI41.2
Support$3.72
Resistance$4.53
MA 20$4.10
MA 50$4.25
MA 200$4.53
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38
Valuation
Fair Value$1.35
Target Price$6.00
Upside/Downside56.25%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.51%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.46
Volatility68.48%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.