We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

GSHD:NASDAQGoosehead Insurance, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$37.86

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Goosehead Insurance is showing strong top‑line momentum, with revenue and core earnings expanding at a healthy pace and recent insider buying signaling confidence from management. The company posted solid profit growth and a healthy free cash flow profile, while a new CFO adds operational depth.
However, the stock is trading well below its long‑term moving averages, in a bearish technical environment marked by decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility. The market’s extreme greed sentiment and a sizable valuation upside relative to discounted cash‑flow estimates suggest a potential catalyst for a price rebound, but investors should be mindful of the weak price performance and elevated risk indicators.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • price near 52‑week low with bearish technical momentum
  • decreasing trading volume
  • insider purchases provide limited short‑term support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • robust revenue growth and expanding margins
  • new CFO expected to enhance execution
  • valuation upside indicated by DCF fair‑value gap

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • sustained earnings growth and strong free cash flow generation
  • low market beta suggesting limited systematic risk
  • continued insider confidence and favorable industry positioning

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth23.30%
Profit Margin7.95%
P/E Ratio33.2
ROA13.49%
P/B Ratio-7.4
Op. Cash Flow$99.1M
Free Cash Flow$56.9M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.8
Support$33.68
Resistance$44.78
MA 20$38.05
MA 50$41.23
MA 200$60.01
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.11

Valuation

Fair Value$43.65
Target Price$65.17
Upside/Downside72.13%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.10
Volatility72.18%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.