GSHD:NASDAQGoosehead Insurance, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time
$37.86
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Goosehead Insurance is showing strong top‑line momentum, with revenue and core earnings expanding at a healthy pace and recent insider buying signaling confidence from management. The company posted solid profit growth and a healthy free cash flow profile, while a new CFO adds operational depth.
However, the stock is trading well below its long‑term moving averages, in a bearish technical environment marked by decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility. The market’s extreme greed sentiment and a sizable valuation upside relative to discounted cash‑flow estimates suggest a potential catalyst for a price rebound, but investors should be mindful of the weak price performance and elevated risk indicators.
However, the stock is trading well below its long‑term moving averages, in a bearish technical environment marked by decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility. The market’s extreme greed sentiment and a sizable valuation upside relative to discounted cash‑flow estimates suggest a potential catalyst for a price rebound, but investors should be mindful of the weak price performance and elevated risk indicators.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- price near 52‑week low with bearish technical momentum
- decreasing trading volume
- insider purchases provide limited short‑term support
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- robust revenue growth and expanding margins
- new CFO expected to enhance execution
- valuation upside indicated by DCF fair‑value gap
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- sustained earnings growth and strong free cash flow generation
- low market beta suggesting limited systematic risk
- continued insider confidence and favorable industry positioning
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth23.30%
Profit Margin7.95%
P/E Ratio33.2
ROA13.49%
P/B Ratio-7.4
Op. Cash Flow$99.1M
Free Cash Flow$56.9M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI47.8
Support$33.68
Resistance$44.78
MA 20$38.05
MA 50$41.23
MA 200$60.01
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.11
Valuation
Fair Value$43.65
Target Price$65.17
Upside/Downside72.13%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.10
Volatility72.18%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.