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GSBD:NYSEGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$9.24

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading beneath its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages while remaining just above the 20‑day average, signaling a short‑term bearish bias despite a neutral RSI and a modestly bullish MACD histogram. Volatility remains elevated and beta is low, suggesting price swings are pronounced but not strongly correlated with the broader market.
Fundamental outlook: Revenue has contracted sharply and earnings missed expectations, while the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with debt far exceeding equity. The dividend yield appears attractive at a double‑digit level, but a payout ratio well above 100% and a recent downgrade of the ratings outlook raise serious questions about sustainability. Valuation multiples are below industry averages, hinting at potential undervaluation, yet the combination of earnings weakness, high leverage, and credit concerns tempers that case.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical positioning relative to longer moving averages
  • Recent earnings miss and negative EPS surprise
  • High leverage and negative ratings outlook

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation multiples remain below peers
  • Potential for portfolio stabilization and credit improvement
  • Continued dividend attractiveness if payout is adjusted

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Significant discount to book value and industry P/E
  • Opportunity to benefit from a possible turnaround in credit quality
  • Long‑run asset appreciation from middle‑market investments

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-18.70%
Profit Margin21.32%
P/E Ratio14.4
ROE5.08%
ROA5.00%
Debt/Equity138.78
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$202.2M
Free Cash Flow$96.3M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI54.4
Support$8.65
Resistance$9.26
MA 20$8.97
MA 50$9.28
MA 200$9.66
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.84

Valuation

Target Price$8.88
Upside/Downside-3.90%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield10.90%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.41
Volatility31.33%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.