GSBD:NYSEGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time
$9.24
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading beneath its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages while remaining just above the 20‑day average, signaling a short‑term bearish bias despite a neutral RSI and a modestly bullish MACD histogram. Volatility remains elevated and beta is low, suggesting price swings are pronounced but not strongly correlated with the broader market.
Fundamental outlook: Revenue has contracted sharply and earnings missed expectations, while the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with debt far exceeding equity. The dividend yield appears attractive at a double‑digit level, but a payout ratio well above 100% and a recent downgrade of the ratings outlook raise serious questions about sustainability. Valuation multiples are below industry averages, hinting at potential undervaluation, yet the combination of earnings weakness, high leverage, and credit concerns tempers that case.
Fundamental outlook: Revenue has contracted sharply and earnings missed expectations, while the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with debt far exceeding equity. The dividend yield appears attractive at a double‑digit level, but a payout ratio well above 100% and a recent downgrade of the ratings outlook raise serious questions about sustainability. Valuation multiples are below industry averages, hinting at potential undervaluation, yet the combination of earnings weakness, high leverage, and credit concerns tempers that case.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical positioning relative to longer moving averages
- Recent earnings miss and negative EPS surprise
- High leverage and negative ratings outlook
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Valuation multiples remain below peers
- Potential for portfolio stabilization and credit improvement
- Continued dividend attractiveness if payout is adjusted
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Significant discount to book value and industry P/E
- Opportunity to benefit from a possible turnaround in credit quality
- Long‑run asset appreciation from middle‑market investments
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-18.70%
Profit Margin21.32%
P/E Ratio14.4
ROE5.08%
ROA5.00%
Debt/Equity138.78
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$202.2M
Free Cash Flow$96.3M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI54.4
Support$8.65
Resistance$9.26
MA 20$8.97
MA 50$9.28
MA 200$9.66
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.84
Valuation
Target Price$8.88
Upside/Downside-3.90%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield10.90%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.41
Volatility31.33%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.