GRMN:NYSEGarmin Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-15 - not real-time
$241.76
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Garmin’s stock is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs, with a bullish MACD histogram and an RSI near the midpoint, indicating modest upward momentum despite a recent decline in volume. Technical signals suggest the price is holding its ground above the near‑term support of $228, while the resistance near $250 provides a clear upside target.
Fundamentally, the company delivered 14% revenue growth, maintains a 59% gross margin and a 24% operating margin, and generates robust free cash flow that comfortably covers its modest debt load. With a dividend yield of 1.74% and a payout ratio under 40%, the dividend appears sustainable, yet the market price of $242 is more than double the DCF‑derived fair value of $111, flagging a significant valuation premium. The consensus “hold” rating and an 8.5% upside potential from the model suggest limited short‑term upside, but the strong cash position, recurring services revenue, and expanding aviation and outdoor product lines support a longer‑term buy case.
Fundamentally, the company delivered 14% revenue growth, maintains a 59% gross margin and a 24% operating margin, and generates robust free cash flow that comfortably covers its modest debt load. With a dividend yield of 1.74% and a payout ratio under 40%, the dividend appears sustainable, yet the market price of $242 is more than double the DCF‑derived fair value of $111, flagging a significant valuation premium. The consensus “hold” rating and an 8.5% upside potential from the model suggest limited short‑term upside, but the strong cash position, recurring services revenue, and expanding aviation and outdoor product lines support a longer‑term buy case.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above short‑term SMAs
- Decreasing volume indicating potential short‑term consolidation
- Upcoming Q2 earnings call could add volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
- Sustainable dividend with solid cash flow
- Current price premium relative to DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Durable competitive moat in GPS and wearables ecosystem
- Expanding aviation and outdoor product portfolio
- Robust balance sheet and low debt supporting continued investment
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth14.20%
Profit Margin23.26%
P/E Ratio27.0
ROE19.90%
ROA11.90%
Debt/Equity2.33
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$810.2M
Industry P/E34.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI52.6
Support$228.51
Resistance$250.34
MA 20$239.13
MA 50$237.73
MA 200$229.05
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.45
Valuation
Fair Value$111.46
Target Price$262.43
Upside/Downside8.55%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.22
Volatility22.57%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.