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GRMN:NYSEGarmin Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-15 - not real-time

$241.76

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Garmin’s stock is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs, with a bullish MACD histogram and an RSI near the midpoint, indicating modest upward momentum despite a recent decline in volume. Technical signals suggest the price is holding its ground above the near‑term support of $228, while the resistance near $250 provides a clear upside target.
Fundamentally, the company delivered 14% revenue growth, maintains a 59% gross margin and a 24% operating margin, and generates robust free cash flow that comfortably covers its modest debt load. With a dividend yield of 1.74% and a payout ratio under 40%, the dividend appears sustainable, yet the market price of $242 is more than double the DCF‑derived fair value of $111, flagging a significant valuation premium. The consensus “hold” rating and an 8.5% upside potential from the model suggest limited short‑term upside, but the strong cash position, recurring services revenue, and expanding aviation and outdoor product lines support a longer‑term buy case.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and price above short‑term SMAs
  • Decreasing volume indicating potential short‑term consolidation
  • Upcoming Q2 earnings call could add volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
  • Sustainable dividend with solid cash flow
  • Current price premium relative to DCF fair value

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Durable competitive moat in GPS and wearables ecosystem
  • Expanding aviation and outdoor product portfolio
  • Robust balance sheet and low debt supporting continued investment

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth14.20%
Profit Margin23.26%
P/E Ratio27.0
ROE19.90%
ROA11.90%
Debt/Equity2.33
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$810.2M
Industry P/E34.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI52.6
Support$228.51
Resistance$250.34
MA 20$239.13
MA 50$237.73
MA 200$229.05
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.45

Valuation

Fair Value$111.46
Target Price$262.43
Upside/Downside8.55%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.74%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.22
Volatility22.57%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.