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GPC:NYSEGenuine Parts Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$92.47

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The short‑term moving average sits below the medium‑term average and the price trades beneath the long‑term average, confirming a bearish momentum. Relative Strength Index is in the low region, suggesting the stock is oversold, while the MACD line remains under the signal line with a negative histogram, reinforcing downside pressure. Current price hovers just above a well‑defined support level, yet 30‑day volatility is elevated and beta is below one, indicating price swings may be pronounced but the stock is less sensitive to market moves.
Fundamental perspective: Discounted cash‑flow analysis places fair value well under the market price, and the trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio is exceptionally high, pointing to overvaluation. Conversely, the forward price‑to‑earnings multiple is modest, the dividend yield ranks among the sector’s best, and the payout ratio is remarkably low, underscoring strong dividend sustainability. Cash flow generation exceeds debt obligations, and the company’s recession‑proof service model provides defensive resilience in a cyclical industry.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • RSI indicates oversold conditions that could trigger a short‑term bounce
  • Price is near a key support level providing a floor
  • Bearish MACD and high volatility suggest caution

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • High dividend yield with an exceptionally low payout ratio supports income‑focused investors
  • Defensive business model offers resilience amid economic headwinds
  • Current market price remains above intrinsic valuation, limiting upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable cash flow and modest debt levels underpin financial stability
  • Recession‑proof service model aligns with long‑term defensive positioning
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value suggests limited long‑term appreciation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.80%
Profit Margin0.24%
P/E Ratio210.2
ROE1.34%
ROA4.54%
Debt/Equity149.45
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$995.5M
Free Cash Flow$755.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI25.8
Support$91.00
Resistance$115.86
MA 20$102.89
MA 50$104.90
MA 200$125.31
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Valuation

Fair Value$49.21
Target Price$132.43
Upside/Downside43.21%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.60%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.68
Volatility30.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.