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GOTO:IDXPT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-28 - not real-time

IDR 50.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

GoTo trades at IDR 50, flat on the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs but below the 200‑day SMA of 56.72, signalling a bearish medium‑term bias. The RSI of 38 suggests modest oversold pressure, while the MACD histogram is positive, hinting at a tentative bullish reversal. Volume has slipped sharply (7.8 M today vs 65 M average 10‑day), raising liquidity concerns. Fundamentally, revenue is expanding at 26 % YoY with a solid 58 % gross margin, yet the company posts a –3.3 % profit margin, negative EPS (-0.61 trailing, -5.32 forward) and a forward P/E of –9.4, indicating earnings weakness. Cash balances (IDR 23 T) comfortably exceed debt (IDR 8 T), but free cash flow remains negative. The DCF fair value of IDR 38.7 is well under the current price, implying the stock is overvalued. Recent news of Tokopedia’s workforce reductions has been met with GoTo’s reassurance that the layoffs will not materially affect financial performance, limiting downside from that event.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below 200‑day SMA and bearish trend direction
  • Decreasing trading volume and low 30‑day volatility
  • Current price exceeds DCF fair value, indicating overvaluation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth (26 % YoY) and healthy gross margin
  • Robust cash position offsetting high debt levels
  • Management’s confidence that Tokopedia restructuring will not impair earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Leadership in Indonesia’s on‑demand services and fintech ecosystem
  • Potential for operational synergies post‑Tokopedia integration
  • Long‑run upside from expanding digital economy despite short‑term earnings pressure

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth26.30%
Profit Margin-3.32%
P/E Ratio-9.4
ROE-3.29%
ROA0.32%
Debt/Equity27.75
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash FlowIDR1068.3B
Free Cash FlowIDR-323724115968
Industry P/E32.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI38.4
SupportIDR 50.00
ResistanceIDR 50.00
MA 20IDR 50.00
MA 50IDR 50.00
MA 200IDR 56.72
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.09

Valuation

Fair ValueIDR 38.75
Target PriceIDR 78.06
Upside/Downside56.12%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.12
0
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.