GLIBA:NASDAQGCI Liberty, Inc. - Series A GCI Group Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-06 - not real-time
$36.64
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
GCI Liberty (GLIBA) trades at $36.64, roughly 8% below its DCF‑derived fair value of $39.95, suggesting notable upside potential. The forward P/E of 7.85 is well under the industry average of 17.34, reinforcing a value‑oriented case. Technicals show the price sitting just above the 30‑day support at $34.79 and below both the 20‑day (36.71) and 50‑day (37.89) moving averages, while the MACD line has crossed above its signal, generating a bullish histogram. RSI at 45.8 indicates neutral momentum, and volume is on an increasing trend, hinting at growing investor interest. However, the company posted a negative trailing profit margin (‑29.5%) and a -0.4% revenue dip, with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 65.8, raising concerns about profitability and leverage.
The recent virtual annual meeting announcement adds no immediate catalyst, but the stable cash position ($416 M) versus debt ($1.12 B) and modest beta of 0.48 suggest limited market volatility. With a 30‑day volatility of 22% and a max drawdown of ‑21%, the stock exhibits moderate risk. Overall, the valuation gap, defensive telecom exposure in Alaska, and improving forward earnings outlook support a cautiously optimistic stance.
The recent virtual annual meeting announcement adds no immediate catalyst, but the stable cash position ($416 M) versus debt ($1.12 B) and modest beta of 0.48 suggest limited market volatility. With a 30‑day volatility of 22% and a max drawdown of ‑21%, the stock exhibits moderate risk. Overall, the valuation gap, defensive telecom exposure in Alaska, and improving forward earnings outlook support a cautiously optimistic stance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD crossover despite price below short‑term averages
- Support level at $34.79 providing downside cushion
- Increasing volume indicating rising market participation
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and industry multiples
- Forward earnings estimate turning positive (EPS $4.67)
- Defensive telecom services niche in Alaska with stable cash flows
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High leverage (Debt/Equity 65.8) limiting financial flexibility
- Negative trailing ROE and profit margins
- Sector stability and limited competitive exposure supporting durability
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.40%
Profit Margin-29.54%
P/E Ratio7.8
ROE-19.71%
ROA3.36%
Debt/Equity65.83
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$370.0M
Free Cash Flow$170.1M
Industry P/E17.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI45.8
Support$34.79
Resistance$38.11
MA 20$36.71
MA 50$37.89
MA 200$36.18
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Fair Value$39.95
Target Price$68.00
Upside/Downside85.59%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.48
Volatility22.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.