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GLIBA:NASDAQGCI Liberty, Inc. - Series A GCI Group Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-06 - not real-time

$36.64

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

GCI Liberty (GLIBA) trades at $36.64, roughly 8% below its DCF‑derived fair value of $39.95, suggesting notable upside potential. The forward P/E of 7.85 is well under the industry average of 17.34, reinforcing a value‑oriented case. Technicals show the price sitting just above the 30‑day support at $34.79 and below both the 20‑day (36.71) and 50‑day (37.89) moving averages, while the MACD line has crossed above its signal, generating a bullish histogram. RSI at 45.8 indicates neutral momentum, and volume is on an increasing trend, hinting at growing investor interest. However, the company posted a negative trailing profit margin (‑29.5%) and a -0.4% revenue dip, with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 65.8, raising concerns about profitability and leverage.
The recent virtual annual meeting announcement adds no immediate catalyst, but the stable cash position ($416 M) versus debt ($1.12 B) and modest beta of 0.48 suggest limited market volatility. With a 30‑day volatility of 22% and a max drawdown of ‑21%, the stock exhibits moderate risk. Overall, the valuation gap, defensive telecom exposure in Alaska, and improving forward earnings outlook support a cautiously optimistic stance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover despite price below short‑term averages
  • Support level at $34.79 providing downside cushion
  • Increasing volume indicating rising market participation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and industry multiples
  • Forward earnings estimate turning positive (EPS $4.67)
  • Defensive telecom services niche in Alaska with stable cash flows

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage (Debt/Equity 65.8) limiting financial flexibility
  • Negative trailing ROE and profit margins
  • Sector stability and limited competitive exposure supporting durability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.40%
Profit Margin-29.54%
P/E Ratio7.8
ROE-19.71%
ROA3.36%
Debt/Equity65.83
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$370.0M
Free Cash Flow$170.1M
Industry P/E17.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.8
Support$34.79
Resistance$38.11
MA 20$36.71
MA 50$37.89
MA 200$36.18
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$39.95
Target Price$68.00
Upside/Downside85.59%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.48
Volatility22.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.