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GFL:TSXGFL Environmental Inc Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-13 - not real-time

CA$49.98

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

GFL is trading below its short‑term moving averages and exhibits a bearish price pattern, with momentum indicators pointing to oversold conditions. The RSI sits well under the mid‑range threshold and the MACD histogram remains negative, suggesting further downside pressure, yet the stock is anchored near a key support level and the broader market sentiment is in the "Extreme Greed" zone, implying a potential short‑term bounce.
Fundamentally, the company has lifted its full‑year revenue outlook after a series of acquisitions, but profitability remains thin, debt levels are high relative to equity, and valuation multiples are far above industry peers. The dividend is modest with a low payout ratio, supporting sustainability, while analyst consensus remains bullish with a buy recommendation and upside estimates exceeding thirty percent. Together, the technical oversold backdrop and the growth‑oriented acquisition strategy create a nuanced picture: short‑term price weakness may be exaggerated, but long‑term value creation hinges on integrating new assets and improving cash generation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Technical oversold signals (low RSI, bearish MACD)
  • Proximity to a defined support level
  • Recent acquisition news causing price volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Raised revenue guidance driven by acquisitions
  • Analyst consensus remains positive with upside potential
  • Improved scale positioning in the waste‑management market

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage and thin operating margins
  • Valuation multiples significantly above peers
  • Sustainable dividend but limited free cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.40%
Profit Margin3.12%
P/E Ratio98.0
ROE2.99%
ROA1.33%
Debt/Equity132.58
P/B Ratio2.5
Op. Cash FlowCA$1.3B
Free Cash FlowCA$33.6M
Industry P/E30.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI32.6
SupportCA$49.32
ResistanceCA$57.50
MA 20CA$52.81
MA 50CA$56.23
MA 200CA$61.25
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.39

Valuation

Target PriceCA$70.73
Upside/Downside41.51%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.17%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.10
Volatility41.53%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.