We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

GBX:NYSEGreenbrier Companies, Inc. (The) Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

$48.17

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Greenbrier (GBX) is trading just above its 20‑day average with a neutral price trend, while the MACD histogram shows a modest bullish signal and volume is on the rise. However, the company’s fundamentals are under pressure: revenue has contracted sharply, margins are thin, and a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 100% signals a heavy leverage load. The discounted cash‑flow model estimates a fair value far below the current market price, indicating the stock is materially overvalued at present.
Despite an attractive dividend yield and a low payout ratio that suggest sustainability, the combination of high volatility, substantial debt, and a declining top line creates a risk profile that outweighs the income appeal, especially given the modest upside potential implied by the technical setup.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Technical price near resistance with bullish MACD histogram
  • Increasing trading volume indicating short‑term interest
  • Current market price exceeds DCF‑derived fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Heavy debt load limiting financial flexibility
  • Revenue decline and thin operating margins
  • Potential upside from automation and equipment modernization initiatives

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained leverage and cash‑flow constraints
  • Likely price correction toward intrinsic value
  • Macroeconomic headwinds affecting rail freight demand

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-22.90%
Profit Margin5.12%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE9.31%
ROA3.11%
Debt/Equity105.01
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$472.1M
Free Cash Flow$135.3M
Industry P/E30.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI50.7
Support$45.15
Resistance$49.24
MA 20$47.55
MA 50$49.00
MA 200$48.53
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$15.60
Target Price$44.67
Upside/Downside-7.27%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.82%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.76
Volatility21.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.