GBX:NYSEGreenbrier Companies, Inc. (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
$48.17
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Greenbrier (GBX) is trading just above its 20‑day average with a neutral price trend, while the MACD histogram shows a modest bullish signal and volume is on the rise. However, the company’s fundamentals are under pressure: revenue has contracted sharply, margins are thin, and a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 100% signals a heavy leverage load. The discounted cash‑flow model estimates a fair value far below the current market price, indicating the stock is materially overvalued at present.
Despite an attractive dividend yield and a low payout ratio that suggest sustainability, the combination of high volatility, substantial debt, and a declining top line creates a risk profile that outweighs the income appeal, especially given the modest upside potential implied by the technical setup.
Despite an attractive dividend yield and a low payout ratio that suggest sustainability, the combination of high volatility, substantial debt, and a declining top line creates a risk profile that outweighs the income appeal, especially given the modest upside potential implied by the technical setup.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Technical price near resistance with bullish MACD histogram
- Increasing trading volume indicating short‑term interest
- Current market price exceeds DCF‑derived fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Heavy debt load limiting financial flexibility
- Revenue decline and thin operating margins
- Potential upside from automation and equipment modernization initiatives
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Sustained leverage and cash‑flow constraints
- Likely price correction toward intrinsic value
- Macroeconomic headwinds affecting rail freight demand
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-22.90%
Profit Margin5.12%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE9.31%
ROA3.11%
Debt/Equity105.01
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$472.1M
Free Cash Flow$135.3M
Industry P/E30.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI50.7
Support$45.15
Resistance$49.24
MA 20$47.55
MA 50$49.00
MA 200$48.53
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value$15.60
Target Price$44.67
Upside/Downside-7.27%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.82%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.76
Volatility21.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.