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GATX:NYSEGATX Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$171.29

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

GATX is trading at $171.29, well below its 20‑day (190.15), 50‑day (182.61) and 200‑day (173.49) moving averages, signaling a short‑term technical weakness, yet the RSI of 31 points to oversold conditions and the recent increase in volume suggests buying interest is building. The MACD remains bearish and price hovers just above the identified support at $171.08, while the broader market sentiment is in an "Extreme Greed" phase (Fear & Greed Index 89.6), creating a potential catalyst for a bounce.
Fundamentally, GATX posted a 38.4% YoY revenue surge to $583.7 million and delivers a robust 74% gross margin with a 29.8% operating margin, far outpacing its peers. Valuation metrics show a PE of 18.4 versus the industry average of 29.5, and the DCF‑derived fair value ($170.36) aligns closely with the current price, implying the stock is fairly priced or slightly undervalued. The dividend yield of 1.54% is supported by a modest 26.7% payout ratio, though free cash flow is negative and leverage is high (debt‑to‑equity ≈ 346%). These dynamics suggest upside potential (≈27% to analyst median target $219.5) but warrant caution on cash‑flow and debt coverage.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI indicating potential price rebound
  • Price near technical support level
  • Increasing trading volume supporting momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and high operating margins
  • Valuation advantage versus industry peers
  • Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage and negative free cash flow pose balance‑sheet risk
  • Sustainable dividend supported by operating cash flow
  • Stable demand for leasing assets across multiple geographies

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth38.40%
Profit Margin17.88%
P/E Ratio18.4
ROE10.76%
ROA2.36%
Debt/Equity345.68
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$723.0M
Free Cash Flow$-5025362432
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI31.1
Support$171.08
Resistance$203.00
MA 20$190.15
MA 50$182.61
MA 200$173.49
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61

Valuation

Fair Value$170.36
Target Price$218.00
Upside/Downside27.27%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.54%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.74
Volatility37.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.