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FWONK:NASDAQLiberty Media Corporation - Series C Liberty Formula One Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-05 - not real-time

$87.86

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Formula One Group (FWONK) is trading at $87.86, well above its DCF fair value of $19.56 and a PE multiple of 38 ×, nearly double the industry average of 17 ×, indicating significant overvaluation. The stock sits below its 20‑day (84.39) and 50‑day (86.19) SMAs and is under the 200‑day SMA (96.04), while the MACD histogram is positive but the line remains negative, suggesting a bearish trend with limited short‑term upside. Recent bullish commentary from Jim Cramer and an upgrade to “Buy” by Bank of America have provided a contrarian narrative, but volume is decreasing and volatility remains high at 36.7 % over the past 30 days.
Fundamentally, FWONK generates $4.48 B in revenue with stable margins (gross 33.7 %, operating 13.5 %) and solid cash flow, yet it carries a heavy debt load ($5.12 B) and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 60.6, which constrains financial flexibility. The business benefits from strong pricing power and global exposure, but the lack of dividend and the elevated valuation temper enthusiasm, making the stock a risky play despite its brand strength.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages indicating bearish momentum
  • High valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Decreasing volume and elevated 30‑day volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong brand and pricing power supporting revenue stability
  • Heavy debt load limiting upside potential
  • Analyst upgrades providing potential catalyst if price corrects toward support

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable operating margins and cash flow generation
  • Absence of dividend and high valuation constrain total return
  • Global exposure mitigates single‑market risk but adds currency considerations

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Profit Margin12.38%
P/E Ratio38.0
ROE7.69%
ROA2.66%
Debt/Equity60.64
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$870.0M
Free Cash Flow$664.2M
Industry P/E17.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI57.1
Support$80.15
Resistance$89.19
MA 20$84.39
MA 50$86.19
MA 200$96.04
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$19.56
Target Price$115.00
Upside/Downside30.89%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.45
Volatility36.73%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.