FRES:LSEFresnillo PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time
£3,264.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Fresnillo plc appears markedly undervalued with a discounted cash‑flow estimate suggesting a potential upside of over 15 % while delivering robust revenue growth of around 30 % and high operating margins that exceed 50 %. The balance sheet is strong, featuring ample cash, modest debt and a low payout ratio that supports a sustainable dividend of roughly 3 %. Recent market chatter highlighted a surge in copper and gold prices, which bolsters sentiment for precious‑metals miners like Fresnillo.
On the technical side, the share price sits above the 20‑day SMA and the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating short‑term bullish momentum, though the RSI hovers near the neutral 50 mark and overall trend is classified as neutral. Volatility remains elevated and trading volume is tapering, suggesting caution, but the price still enjoys a comfortable cushion above the identified support level.
On the technical side, the share price sits above the 20‑day SMA and the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating short‑term bullish momentum, though the RSI hovers near the neutral 50 mark and overall trend is classified as neutral. Volatility remains elevated and trading volume is tapering, suggesting caution, but the price still enjoys a comfortable cushion above the identified support level.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Positive MACD histogram signaling short‑term bullishness
- Price above 20‑day SMA providing immediate support
- Neutral RSI and high 30‑day volatility urging caution
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation indicates significant upside
- Strong cash generation and low leverage
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term commodity price tailwinds for silver and gold
- Sustainable dividend policy supporting shareholder returns
- Solid balance sheet and high return on equity
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth30.70%
Profit Margin30.34%
P/E Ratio23.3
ROE33.90%
ROA19.90%
Debt/Equity16.77
P/B Ratio7.0
Op. Cash Flow£2.3B
Free Cash Flow£1.8B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI52.7
Support£2,795.00
Resistance£3,501.00
MA 20£3,147.46
MA 50£3,356.15
MA 200£3,081.17
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13
Valuation
Fair Value£9,026.31
Target Price£3,825.36
Upside/Downside17.20%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.97%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.78
Volatility66.80%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.