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FRES:LSEFresnillo PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

£3,264.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Fresnillo plc appears markedly undervalued with a discounted cash‑flow estimate suggesting a potential upside of over 15 % while delivering robust revenue growth of around 30 % and high operating margins that exceed 50 %. The balance sheet is strong, featuring ample cash, modest debt and a low payout ratio that supports a sustainable dividend of roughly 3 %. Recent market chatter highlighted a surge in copper and gold prices, which bolsters sentiment for precious‑metals miners like Fresnillo.
On the technical side, the share price sits above the 20‑day SMA and the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating short‑term bullish momentum, though the RSI hovers near the neutral 50 mark and overall trend is classified as neutral. Volatility remains elevated and trading volume is tapering, suggesting caution, but the price still enjoys a comfortable cushion above the identified support level.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Positive MACD histogram signaling short‑term bullishness
  • Price above 20‑day SMA providing immediate support
  • Neutral RSI and high 30‑day volatility urging caution

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF valuation indicates significant upside
  • Strong cash generation and low leverage
  • Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term commodity price tailwinds for silver and gold
  • Sustainable dividend policy supporting shareholder returns
  • Solid balance sheet and high return on equity

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth30.70%
Profit Margin30.34%
P/E Ratio23.3
ROE33.90%
ROA19.90%
Debt/Equity16.77
P/B Ratio7.0
Op. Cash Flow£2.3B
Free Cash Flow£1.8B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI52.7
Support£2,795.00
Resistance£3,501.00
MA 20£3,147.46
MA 50£3,356.15
MA 200£3,081.17
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13

Valuation

Fair Value£9,026.31
Target Price£3,825.36
Upside/Downside17.20%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.97%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.78
Volatility66.80%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.