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FRBA:NASDAQFirst Bank Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time

$16.18

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Bank trades well below its discounted cash‑flow fair value, offering roughly an 18% upside potential while its price‑to‑earnings multiple sits comfortably under the industry average, signaling an attractive valuation. The bank’s strong operating margin and modest but positive earnings growth, combined with a low payout ratio, suggest the dividend is sustainable and can provide steady income.
Technical indicators show a neutral price trend with the 20‑day SMA just above the current price, a bullish MACD histogram and an RSI in the mid‑50s, indicating limited downside risk but also no strong momentum. Low beta and moderate 30‑day volatility further temper risk, though the regional banking sector carries inherent credit and regulatory exposure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near short‑term support with neutral trend
  • Bullish MACD histogram suggests limited downside
  • Decreasing volume may constrain immediate upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and industry P/E
  • Sustainable dividend and strong operating margins
  • Low beta and modest volatility support a stable return profile

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability and healthy cash position
  • Potential for earnings expansion as regional banking conditions improve
  • Long‑term upside from valuation gap and dividend yield

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.40%
Profit Margin32.27%
P/E Ratio9.3
ROE10.24%
ROA1.13%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$65.6M
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI58.0
Support$14.81
Resistance$16.40
MA 20$15.61
MA 50$16.29
MA 200$16.07
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$25.85
Target Price$19.17
Upside/Downside18.46%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.67%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.58
Volatility20.63%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.