FR:NYSEFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-18 - not real-time
$68.86
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) is trading at $68.86, just below the 20‑day SMA of 64.13 and comfortably above the 200‑day SMA of 59.35, confirming a bullish trend supported by a bullish MACD histogram (+0.53) and a high RSI of 73.9, which signals short‑term overbought pressure. The REIT delivers solid fundamentals – a 73.5% gross margin, 35% operating margin, and 45.9% profit margin – with robust operating cash flow of $462 M and free cash flow of $239 M, while paying a 2.74% dividend yield on a 70% payout ratio. However, the DCF fair‑value estimate of $16.02 suggests the market is pricing in a significant premium, and the debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~91% highlights leverage concerns.
Recent analyst sentiment is mixed: the consensus remains a “buy” with a median target of $68.5, yet a recent downgrade to “hold” reflects worries about valuation and limited upside. With stable volume, low beta (~0.48) and a beta reported by the exchange of 1.07, the stock shows modest volatility. The combination of strong cash generation, attractive dividend yield, and elevated valuation implies a cautious approach, favoring a hold stance in the near term while monitoring price action around the $69.9 resistance and any shifts in earnings guidance.
Recent analyst sentiment is mixed: the consensus remains a “buy” with a median target of $68.5, yet a recent downgrade to “hold” reflects worries about valuation and limited upside. With stable volume, low beta (~0.48) and a beta reported by the exchange of 1.07, the stock shows modest volatility. The combination of strong cash generation, attractive dividend yield, and elevated valuation implies a cautious approach, favoring a hold stance in the near term while monitoring price action around the $69.9 resistance and any shifts in earnings guidance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI at 73.9 indicates overbought conditions
- Price approaching resistance at $69.88
- Stable volume and low beta suggest limited short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Analyst consensus target ($68.5) aligns with current price
- High payout ratio (70%) and solid cash flow support dividend sustainability
- Elevated DCF fair‑value gap signals limited upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong operating margins and consistent cash generation
- Attractive dividend yield (2.74%) with stable payout
- Industry positioning in high‑growth logistics real estate
Key Metrics & Analysis
REIT Metrics
P/FFO20.44015968214424
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI73.9
Support$60.96
Resistance$69.88
MA 20$64.13
MA 50$62.89
MA 200$59.35
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.91
Risk Assessment
Beta0.48
Volatility25.45%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.