FPH:NYSEFive Point Holdings, LLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$4.79
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Five Point Holdings trades at $4.79, sitting below its 20‑day (4.92) and 50‑day (4.97) simple moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram and an RSI of 43 indicating limited upside momentum. The stock’s PE of 7.85 is dramatically lower than the industry average of 32.25, and a price‑to‑book of 0.40 suggests a deep discount to book value, but the company posted a Q1 net loss of $5 million, negative operating cash flow, and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~19.8, raising concerns about financial stability.
Volatility is elevated at over 31% for the past 30 days and the Fear & Greed Index shows “Extreme Greed,” hinting at potential speculative pressure. While the balance sheet shows $332 million in cash, the $472 million debt load and negative free cash flow underscore liquidity challenges, especially as trading volume is decreasing. These mixed signals point to a value‑oriented stock with significant downside risk in the near term.
Volatility is elevated at over 31% for the past 30 days and the Fear & Greed Index shows “Extreme Greed,” hinting at potential speculative pressure. While the balance sheet shows $332 million in cash, the $472 million debt load and negative free cash flow underscore liquidity challenges, especially as trading volume is decreasing. These mixed signals point to a value‑oriented stock with significant downside risk in the near term.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term SMAs and bearish MACD
- Decreasing volume indicating waning buying interest
- Quarterly net loss and negative operating cash flow
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount relative to peers
- Large cash reserve that could fund a turnaround
- Persistent high debt and weak earnings trends
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued metrics (PE, P/B) may attract value investors
- Real estate development exposure to cyclical market dynamics
- Uncertainty around future land sales and cash flow generation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.20%
Profit Margin41.16%
P/E Ratio7.8
ROE5.11%
ROA-0.21%
Debt/Equity19.84
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash Flow$4.0M
Free Cash Flow$-125328624
Industry P/E32.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI43.2
Support$4.60
Resistance$5.19
MA 20$4.92
MA 50$4.97
MA 200$5.56
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.13
Valuation
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.91
Volatility31.40%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.