FOUR:NYSEShift4 Payments, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time
$42.76
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Shift4 Payments is trading around $42.76, far below its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $137, implying more than 50% upside potential. Revenue is expanding at a 34% annual rate and the company posted a forward EPS of $6.83, driving the forward P/E down to just over 6x. Margins remain modest, with a gross margin of 34% and operating margin of 10%, yet free cash flow generation of $476 M supports ongoing investment. Technically, the stock sits below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages and the RSI of 40 suggests limited momentum, though the MACD histogram has turned positive, hinting at a possible short‑term bounce near the $40.6 support level. Recent news adds a mixed signal: a shareholder‑led investigation raises governance concerns, while earnings reports highlight robust performance and strategic acquisitions, and analyst sentiment remains bullish with a consensus “Buy” and 35% upside forecast. The high 30‑day volatility (~96%) and beta above 1.3 underscore price swings, but the company’s U.S.‑centric revenue base limits currency exposure. Overall, the fundamentals point to a growth‑oriented, undervalued play, but investors must weigh the short‑term technical weakness and litigation risk against the long‑term upside.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price below key moving averages indicating bearish momentum
- Proximity to technical support at $40.6
- Shareholder investigation creating governance uncertainty
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and improving forward earnings
- DCF valuation showing >50% upside
- Positive analyst consensus and insider buying activity
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term tailwinds in digital payments and omnichannel solutions
- Strategic acquisitions expanding product suite
- Undervalued relative to intrinsic fair value despite volatility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth33.90%
Profit Margin2.85%
P/E Ratio39.6
ROE9.88%
ROA3.49%
Debt/Equity235.87
P/B Ratio5.9
Op. Cash Flow$634.0M
Free Cash Flow$476.2M
Industry P/E33.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI40.4
Support$40.60
Resistance$55.46
MA 20$45.21
MA 50$52.13
MA 200$73.91
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Fair Value$136.94
Target Price$65.96
Upside/Downside54.25%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.32
Volatility95.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.