FOSL:NASDAQFossil Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-08 - not real-time
$5.05
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Fossil Group, Inc. is priced at $5.05 and its moving averages line up in bullish order, the shorter sitting above the longer. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 20.0%. With RSI at 46.3 the momentum picture is neutral, alongside a bearish MACD signal. Recent trading has carved out support near $4.79 and resistance around $6.25.
The company is not currently profitable on a trailing basis, so earnings multiples offer no valuation support. Consensus targets land 48.5% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is contracting at 4.9% on a -7.1% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 76.5%, a beta of 2.32 and a maximum drawdown of 52.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on hold — conviction 2 out of 10.
The company is not currently profitable on a trailing basis, so earnings multiples offer no valuation support. Consensus targets land 48.5% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is contracting at 4.9% on a -7.1% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 76.5%, a beta of 2.32 and a maximum drawdown of 52.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on hold — conviction 2 out of 10.
Top Market Events
Fossil Group Inc FOSL beats Q2 expectations with a 490 basis point gross margin expansion and raises full-year...Fossil Group FOSL delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +55.A required part of this site couldn’t load.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 4.29
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 1/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 4.29
- Analyst targets imply +48.5% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Negative profit margin of -7.1%
- Analyst targets imply +48.5% versus the current price
- Negative return on equity of -66.5%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.90%
Profit Margin-7.09%
P/E Ratio-63.1
ROE-66.53%
ROA1.80%
Debt/Equity462.12
P/B Ratio3.2
Op. Cash Flow$-37921000
Free Cash Flow$24.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI46.3
Support$4.79
Resistance$6.25
MA 20$5.36
MA 50$4.86
MA 200$4.29
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.02
Valuation
Fair Value$0.84
Target Price$7.50
Upside/Downside48.51%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta2.32
Volatility76.45%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.