FOLD:NASDAQAmicus Therapeutics, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time
$14.44
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) trades at $14.44, well above its DCF fair value of $4.90, suggesting the market is pricing in strong growth expectations. The stock sits just above its 20‑day SMA ($14.40) and 50‑day SMA ($14.35), with a bullish trend direction, but the MACD histogram has turned negative and the RSI is at 67, indicating near‑overbought conditions. Recent earnings showed a loss of $0.09 per share versus expectations, and adjusted earnings of $0.10 per share missed consensus, adding short‑term pressure.
On the fundamentals side, revenue grew 23.7% YoY to $634.2 M with an impressive 88.5% gross margin, while operating cash flow remains positive. The beta of 0.65 and 30‑day volatility under 2% point to relatively low market‑price swing, yet biotech’s inherent regulatory and integration risks remain medium to high, especially amid the announced BioMarin acquisition valued at $4.8 B.
On the fundamentals side, revenue grew 23.7% YoY to $634.2 M with an impressive 88.5% gross margin, while operating cash flow remains positive. The beta of 0.65 and 30‑day volatility under 2% point to relatively low market‑price swing, yet biotech’s inherent regulatory and integration risks remain medium to high, especially amid the announced BioMarin acquisition valued at $4.8 B.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Negative MACD histogram signaling short‑term momentum weakness
- Recent earnings miss and modest adjusted EPS
- Proximity to resistance level at $14.46 limiting upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Potential acquisition premium from BioMarin ($4.8 B deal)
- Strong revenue growth and high gross margins
- Robust pipeline with Galafold and Phase 3 DMX‑200
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Sustained growth prospects in rare‑disease therapeutics
- Integration and regulatory execution risk post‑acquisition
- Current valuation appears stretched relative to DCF fair value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth23.70%
Profit Margin-4.28%
P/E Ratio17.6
ROE-11.58%
ROA2.48%
Debt/Equity161.30
P/B Ratio16.4
Op. Cash Flow$33.1M
Free Cash Flow$47.8M
Industry P/E25.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI67.2
Support$14.32
Resistance$14.46
MA 20$14.40
MA 50$14.35
MA 200$10.20
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Fair Value$4.90
Target Price$14.50
Upside/Downside0.42%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.65
Volatility1.99%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.