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FNLC:NASDAQFirst Bancorp, Inc (ME) Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time

$28.60

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The First Bancorp trades at roughly $28.6, comfortably above its 20‑day ($27.69) and 50‑day ($28.05) moving averages while still below the 200‑day average ($26.54), indicating a modest upward bias. Technical momentum is reinforced by a bullish MACD histogram (+0.12) and a neutral RSI (57), suggesting room for further upside without immediate overbought pressure. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the price advance toward the near‑term resistance around $28.92. Fundamentally, the bank delivers a strong revenue growth rate of 22.8% and an operating margin above 50%, underscoring robust profitability. The dividend yield of 5.17% with a payout ratio near 60% appears sustainable given solid operating cash flow and a low beta of 0.42, which tempers market‑wide volatility. However, the 30‑day volatility of 27% and the inherent credit and regulatory sensitivities of regional banks warrant caution.
Valuation metrics reveal a stark disconnect: the discounted cash‑flow fair value is estimated at $66.2, more than double the current price, flagging the stock as deeply undervalued. The price‑to‑book ratio of 1.13 and a PE of 9.3 are well below industry averages, reinforcing the value case. While the sector faces medium‑level regulatory risk, the company's Maine‑centric footprint limits geographic exposure, and its strong dividend makes it attractive for income‑focused investors. Overall, the blend of technical strength, solid fundamentals, and a sizable valuation gap supports a positive outlook across multiple horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near short‑term resistance with bullish MACD
  • Increasing volume supporting current trend
  • Moderate volatility and low beta limiting downside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside versus DCF fair value
  • Strong revenue growth and high operating margin
  • Sustainable dividend yield enhancing total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers and industry averages
  • Stable earnings base with low geographic concentration
  • Low beta and resilient cash flow supporting dividend continuity

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth22.80%
Profit Margin37.04%
P/E Ratio9.3
ROE12.84%
ROA1.09%
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$37.8M
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI57.8
Support$26.86
Resistance$28.92
MA 20$27.69
MA 50$28.05
MA 200$26.54
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$66.19
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.17%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.42
Volatility27.41%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.