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FNKO:NASDAQFunko, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time

$5.17

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Funko, Inc. is trading at $5.17, just under its 20‑day SMA of $5.22 but comfortably above the 50‑day ($4.54) and 200‑day ($3.79) averages, indicating a still‑bullish longer‑term trend despite short‑term softness. The RSI sits at 53, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is flagged bearish, hinting at possible near‑term downside. Volume has been decreasing, and the 30‑day volatility is an elevated 67%, underscoring a high‑risk price environment. On the fundamentals side, the company posted a record‑high gross margin of 44% and a 5% revenue increase, yet it remains loss‑making with a -6.3% profit margin, negative operating margin, and a ROE of -30%. Debt is a major concern: total debt of $279 M dwarfs cash of $34 M, yielding a debt‑to‑equity of 165% and a net‑debt burden that pressures cash flow. The DCF‑derived fair value of $3.11 is well below the current price, signaling overvaluation, while analysts’ target of $6.50 implies an upside of roughly 26% based on the upside/downside metric. The Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” reflecting market optimism that may be disconnected from the underlying financial stress. Overall, the stock sits at the intersection of improving top‑line trends and persistent profitability and balance‑sheet challenges, creating a mixed outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and declining volume signal near‑term weakness
  • Current price above DCF fair value suggests limited upside
  • High volatility and elevated beta increase price risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Improving gross margin and modest revenue growth support a potential turnaround
  • Heavy debt load and negative earnings constrain valuation
  • Analyst target price of $6.50 provides upside if profitability improves

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Brand strength in pop‑culture collectibles offers growth avenues
  • Sustained negative ROE and high debt‑to‑equity pose structural risks
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value may limit long‑term returns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.30%
Profit Margin-6.30%
P/E Ratio23.5
ROE-30.43%
ROA-3.14%
Debt/Equity164.89
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$27.3M
Free Cash Flow$25.6M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI53.5
Support$4.51
Resistance$5.82
MA 20$5.22
MA 50$4.54
MA 200$3.79
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.52

Valuation

Fair Value$3.11
Target Price$6.50
Upside/Downside25.85%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta2.26
Volatility67.23%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.