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FNF:NYSEFidelity National Financial, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time

$45.69

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Fidelity National Financial is trading at $45.69, below its 20‑day SMA of 46.53 and well under the 50‑day (51.17) and 200‑day (54.29) averages, signaling a bearish price trend. The RSI of 39 places the stock in oversold territory, while the MACD shows a bullish signal with the line crossing above the signal line, and volume is on an increasing trend, suggesting potential short‑term upside toward the identified resistance at $50.18. Recent earnings beat expectations, with Q4 revenue of $4.03 billion up 11.9% YoY and full‑year revenue of $14.5 billion growing 7%, reinforcing the momentum from the technical setup.
Fundamentally, the company delivers a solid gross margin of 53.5% and an operating margin of 13%, but net profit margins remain thin at 4.2% and a high dividend payout ratio of 91% raises questions about sustainability. The forward EPS of $6.52 translates to a forward P/E of ~7x, far below the industry average of 16.6x, and analysts project a mean target of $67.2, implying roughly 47% upside. Despite a high implied DCF fair value of $169, the current market price reflects a significant discount, making the stock appear undervalued relative to both peers and intrinsic estimates.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI indicating potential rebound
  • Bullish MACD crossover
  • Recent earnings beat and increasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and healthy margins
  • Forward P/E of ~7x versus industry average of 16.6x
  • Analyst price targets suggesting ~50% upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained cash flow generation and high dividend yield
  • Significant valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Stable U.S. geographic exposure with low currency risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.30%
Profit Margin4.15%
P/E Ratio20.7
ROE7.76%
ROA1.10%
Debt/Equity53.14
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$5.8B
Free Cash Flow$2.0B
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI39.4
Support$42.78
Resistance$50.18
MA 20$46.53
MA 50$51.17
MA 200$54.29
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$169.31
Target Price$67.20
Upside/Downside47.08%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.55%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.58
Volatility32.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.