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FND:NYSEFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-15 - not real-time

$53.73

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Floor & Decor trades around $53.73, just below the 20‑day SMA (49.33) and well under the 200‑day SMA (63.10), indicating a bearish longer‑term trend despite a bullish MACD histogram (+0.66) and an RSI of 60 that hints at modest overbought pressure. The stock carries a high beta (~1.7) and 30‑day volatility of ~58%, reflecting sensitivity to market swings, while fundamentals show flat revenue growth (‑0.7%), thin operating margins (4.5%), and a leveraged balance sheet (debt‑to‑equity ~82%). Analysts project a modest upside of ~34% (target mean $53.91) and maintain a “hold” consensus, with the recent 39% increase in insider stock ownership and a new buyback plan providing a short‑term confidence boost.
Overall, the combination of a bearish technical backdrop, elevated risk metrics, and a neutral valuation (PE ~29, price‑to‑book ~2.36) suggests investors should monitor price action around the $56.4 resistance while weighing the company’s cash‑flow generation against its debt load and cyclical exposure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD but overall bearish trend direction
  • High beta and volatility increasing price swing risk
  • Proximity to resistance level near $56.4

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Modest upside potential per analyst targets
  • Elevated debt‑to‑equity ratio limiting financial flexibility
  • Positive free cash flow but limited growth in revenue

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Structural demand for home‑improvement and flooring products
  • Insider buying and new share buyback indicating confidence
  • Improving forward EPS and a reasonable price‑to‑sales multiple

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.70%
Profit Margin4.27%
P/E Ratio29.2
ROE8.53%
ROA2.94%
Debt/Equity81.68
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$419.9M
Free Cash Flow$78.8M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI60.8
Support$42.64
Resistance$56.44
MA 20$49.33
MA 50$49.83
MA 200$63.10
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.61

Valuation

Target Price$53.91
Upside/Downside0.34%
GradeFair
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.71
Volatility57.92%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.