FND:NYSEFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-04 - not real-time
$47.47
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Floor & Decor (FND) is trading at $47.47, well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs of $53.92, $62.84 and $70.69, indicating a strong bearish bias on the price chart. The RSI of 28.4 signals oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing short‑term downside pressure but also hinting at a potential technical rebound near the identified support at $46.47. Volatility is elevated at roughly 44% over the past 30 days and beta (≈1.27) exceeds the market, suggesting the stock may swing sharply on new information.
Fundamentally, the company posted a modest 2% revenue growth for FY2025 and a forward EPS of $2.44, with a forward P/E of 19.5 versus a trailing P/E of 24.7, implying a valuation gap. Analysts average a target price near $74, translating to an upside of about 57%, and the recent earnings call highlighted a 2% Q4 sales increase, a 4‑7% sales growth goal for 2026, and the opening of a new Pittsburgh‑area store, all supporting a longer‑run recovery narrative despite a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 82.7% and no dividend.
Fundamentally, the company posted a modest 2% revenue growth for FY2025 and a forward EPS of $2.44, with a forward P/E of 19.5 versus a trailing P/E of 24.7, implying a valuation gap. Analysts average a target price near $74, translating to an upside of about 57%, and the recent earnings call highlighted a 2% Q4 sales increase, a 4‑7% sales growth goal for 2026, and the opening of a new Pittsburgh‑area store, all supporting a longer‑run recovery narrative despite a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 82.7% and no dividend.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Oversold RSI suggesting a near‑term bounce
- Support level at $46.47 providing downside cushion
- Increasing volume indicating accumulating interest
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Analyst consensus target price ~ $74 implying ~57% upside
- Management's 4‑7% sales growth outlook for 2026
- Recent earnings beat and new store expansion
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong market position in specialty flooring with scalable store format
- Improving forward earnings estimates and reasonable forward P/E
- Undervalued book value (P/B ~2.1) relative to industry peers
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.00%
Profit Margin4.45%
P/E Ratio24.7
ROE9.11%
ROA3.21%
Debt/Equity82.67
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$381.8M
Free Cash Flow$30.1M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI28.4
Support$46.47
Resistance$61.97
MA 20$53.92
MA 50$62.84
MA 200$70.69
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Target Price$74.50
Upside/Downside56.94%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.27
Volatility43.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.