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FHI:NYSEFederated Hermes, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time

$59.29

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Federated Hermes posted a solid Q1 with revenue up 13.1% YoY to $479 million and GAAP EPS beating expectations by 7.2%, underscoring strong operating margins (gross ~68%, operating ~26%). Technically, the stock trades above its 20‑day (56.65) and 50‑day (56.30) SMAs, with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI of 67, indicating continued momentum but no immediate over‑bought signal. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $113 is far above the current price of $59.29, yielding a negative upside of about 7%, and the market’s “Extreme Greed” sentiment (FGI 90) may be pricing in optimism beyond fundamentals. With a low beta (~0.7) and 30‑day volatility around 21%, the stock shows moderate price swings, while decreasing volume suggests waning short‑term buying pressure.
Given the blend of robust earnings, attractive margins, and a high ROE (~34%), the company remains a solid growth‑oriented asset manager, yet the lack of dividend and apparent overvaluation temper enthusiasm. Investors should weigh the bullish technical backdrop against the valuation gap and sector‑specific competitive dynamics before adjusting positions.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, bullish MACD)
  • Recent earnings beat and strong margin profile
  • Decreasing volume and limited near‑term upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Absence of dividend income
  • Stable but modest beta and sector competitive pressures

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Overvaluation relative to intrinsic fair value
  • Potential headwinds in asset‑management fees and market saturation
  • No sustainable dividend to support total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.10%
Profit Margin21.47%
P/E Ratio11.5
ROE33.76%
ROA15.33%
Debt/Equity35.67
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow$311.9M
Free Cash Flow$364.8M
Industry P/E17.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI67.3
Support$52.76
Resistance$59.68
MA 20$56.65
MA 50$56.30
MA 200$53.71
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.43

Valuation

Fair Value$112.95
Target Price$55.00
Upside/Downside-7.24%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.70
Volatility21.02%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.