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FGBIP:NASDAQFirst Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. - 6.75% Series A Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

$20.08

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Guaranty Bancshares is trading at $20.08, just above its technical support of $20 and below the short‑term resistance of $20.70. The stock sits above its 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs (20.36 and 19.37) and the 200‑day SMA (17.78), indicating a bullish long‑term trend, but the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD signal line is bearish, suggesting short‑term downside pressure. RSI is neutral at 49.6 and volume is on a decreasing trend, which may limit upward momentum. On the fundamentals side, the company reports a very low PE of 7.7 versus an industry average of 16.9 and a price‑to‑book of 1.69, while offering an eye‑catching dividend yield of 8.4%. However, profit margins are deeply negative (‑197%) and ROE is ‑19.8%, raising concerns about earnings sustainability despite a 94.5% revenue growth rate and a strong cash position of $734 M against $186 M of debt. The stock’s beta is low (≈0.18) and 30‑day volatility is moderate at 14.7%, but a historical max drawdown of ‑25% highlights downside risk. Overall, the valuation appears attractive on price metrics, yet the unsustainable dividend and ongoing losses temper enthusiasm.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above technical support
  • Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
  • Negative earnings and questionable dividend sustainability

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Strong cash reserves relative to debt
  • Rapid revenue growth despite current losses
  • Low beta and moderate volatility offering defensive characteristics

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Potential earnings turnaround given revenue momentum
  • Attractive price multiples versus industry peers
  • Stable geographic footprint in the US with limited currency exposure

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth94.50%
Profit Margin-196.94%
P/E Ratio7.7
ROE-19.82%
ROA-1.21%
P/B Ratio1.7
Industry P/E16.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI49.6
Support$20.00
Resistance$20.70
MA 20$20.36
MA 50$19.37
MA 200$17.78
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield8.40%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.18
Volatility14.69%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.