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FGBI:NASDAQFirst Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$8.70

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Guaranty Bancshares has posted a notable turnaround with a positive net income in the latest quarter and significant insider buying, suggesting confidence from management. The stock is trading just above a technical support zone while still below a clear resistance ceiling, and the 20‑day moving average sits above the 50‑day line, indicating a short‑term bullish bias despite a bearish MACD divergence. Volume is tapering, and the RSI hovers in a neutral band, so momentum remains mixed.
Valuation appears attractive with a price‑to‑book ratio well under one and a forward earnings multiple below the sector average, yet the dividend payout exceeds earnings, raising sustainability concerns. High recent volatility and a sizable historical drawdown amplify risk, especially given the bank’s regional concentration. Overall, the picture is one of potential upside if earnings improve, but investors should weigh the earnings volatility and dividend risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings beat and positive net income
  • Technical support near current price
  • Bearish MACD signal and decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth trajectory
  • Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
  • Insider buying indicating confidence

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High historical volatility and drawdown risk
  • Dividend payout exceeding earnings
  • Regional exposure to a limited market

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth94.50%
Profit Margin-196.94%
P/E Ratio13.4
ROE-19.82%
ROA-1.21%
P/B Ratio0.7
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI40.3
Support$8.31
Resistance$9.99
MA 20$9.16
MA 50$9.00
MA 200$7.83
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.25

Valuation

Target Price$9.00
Upside/Downside3.45%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.45%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.05
Volatility44.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.