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FFIN:NASDAQFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$31.61

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) is trading at $31.61, just below its 20‑day SMA of $31.99 and its 200‑day SMA of $32.37, indicating short‑term pressure while still sitting above the 50‑day SMA of $30.94. The stock sits near the computed support level of $30.89 and faces resistance around $32.96, with volume trending upward and a neutral market trend. Fundamentally, the company posted a 13% revenue growth year‑over‑year, a strong operating margin of 57%, and a profit margin of 42%, supporting a forward EPS of $2.14 and a forward P/E of 14.8, well below the current trailing P/E of 17.2. Dividend sustainability looks solid, with a 2.78% yield and a payout ratio under 45%, and the DCF model suggests a fair value of $37.14, implying roughly a 7% upside. Recent news highlights record 2025 earnings and a dividend increase, while macro commentary about the Fed holding rates steady adds a slight headwind for net interest income. Overall, the stock presents a modest undervaluation, stable cash generation, and an attractive yield, but technical indicators are mildly bearish and volatility remains high at 25% over the past 30 days.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with bearish MACD histogram
  • Increasing volume suggests potential bounce
  • Dividend yield provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF upside of ~7% and analyst target median of $34
  • Strong operating margins and earnings growth
  • Sustainable dividend supporting total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability and high ROE (~14.5%)
  • Stable U.S. regional banking environment with modest beta
  • Attractive dividend yield and low payout ratio

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.10%
Profit Margin42.40%
P/E Ratio17.2
ROE14.56%
ROA1.78%
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash Flow$324.3M
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI49.5
Support$30.89
Resistance$32.96
MA 20$31.99
MA 50$30.94
MA 200$32.37
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Valuation

Fair Value$37.14
Target Price$33.75
Upside/Downside6.77%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.78%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.92
Volatility25.55%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.