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FFIN:NASDAQFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$33.30

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) trades at $33.30, just below its DCF‑derived fair value of $37.45, indicating modest upside (~1.3%). The stock’s P/E of 18.1 sits above the regional bank average of 16.6, suggesting a slight premium, but the robust dividend yield of 2.64% and a modest payout ratio (41%) support its valuation. Technicals are encouraging: the 20‑day SMA ($32.33) is under the price, the MACD histogram is positive with a bullish signal, RSI is at 61 (no overbought warning), and volume is increasing, all pointing to continued momentum toward the next resistance at $33.71.
Recent news highlights a record 2025 earnings run, balance‑sheet growth driven by deposits, and an increased dividend announced at the 2026 annual meeting, reinforcing confidence in cash flow stability. Combined with low beta (0.79) and a 30‑day volatility of ~20.6%, the risk profile is moderate, while the “Extreme Greed” sentiment (FGI 86.7) underscores bullish market bias. Overall, FFIN appears fairly valued with a blend of growth and income attributes, making it a solid hold with upside potential for income‑focused investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and rising volume support near‑term price stability
  • Price above 20‑day SMA and approaching resistance at $33.71
  • RSI at 61 indicates room for upside without overbought pressure

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Modest upside to DCF fair value and solid dividend yield
  • Revenue growth of 13% and strong operating margin (57%)
  • Low beta and manageable volatility for a regional bank

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend backed by strong cash flow and low debt
  • Blend of growth (record earnings, deposit‑driven balance sheet) and value
  • Long‑term sector fundamentals and defensive positioning in Texas market

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.10%
Profit Margin42.40%
P/E Ratio18.1
ROE14.56%
ROA1.78%
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$324.3M
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI61.3
Support$30.89
Resistance$33.71
MA 20$32.33
MA 50$31.95
MA 200$32.15
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.71

Valuation

Fair Value$37.45
Target Price$33.75
Upside/Downside1.35%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.64%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.79
Volatility20.65%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.