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FERG:NYSEFerguson Enterprises Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-02 - not real-time

$235.07

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ferguson Enterprises has delivered solid revenue growth and margin expansion, beating recent earnings expectations. The technical picture shows the price above the short‑term and mid‑term moving averages, a bullish MACD histogram, and a neutral RSI, indicating a balanced momentum while the stock hovers near a key resistance zone.
Valuation signals are mixed. The market price sits well above the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting overvaluation, yet the price‑to‑earnings multiple is modest compared with peers. Dividend yield is modest and payout is reasonable, but free cash flow is currently flat and debt levels are elevated, raising questions about long‑term dividend sustainability. Overall, the company sits in a sector that is cyclical but benefits from steady demand for industrial distribution, with risk factors anchored by notable volatility and a market‑aligned beta.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings miss and softened residential demand
  • Technical price near resistance with neutral trend
  • Modest dividend yield offering limited upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Continued revenue growth and market‑share gains
  • Improving operating margins and solid earnings momentum
  • Attractive earnings multiple relative to industry peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation gap between market price and intrinsic estimate
  • Elevated debt load and zero free cash flow
  • Cyclical exposure in industrial distribution balanced by diversified product mix

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.60%
Profit Margin6.13%
P/E Ratio23.1
Debt/Equity92.44
P/B Ratio7.8
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Industry P/E28.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI51.7
Support$214.51
Resistance$241.86
MA 20$226.16
MA 50$244.57
MA 200$235.24
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index78.8

Valuation

Fair Value$88.89
Target Price$277.18
Upside/Downside17.91%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.49%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.00
Volatility36.62%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.