FERG:NYSEFerguson Enterprises Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-02 - not real-time
$235.07
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ferguson Enterprises has delivered solid revenue growth and margin expansion, beating recent earnings expectations. The technical picture shows the price above the short‑term and mid‑term moving averages, a bullish MACD histogram, and a neutral RSI, indicating a balanced momentum while the stock hovers near a key resistance zone.
Valuation signals are mixed. The market price sits well above the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting overvaluation, yet the price‑to‑earnings multiple is modest compared with peers. Dividend yield is modest and payout is reasonable, but free cash flow is currently flat and debt levels are elevated, raising questions about long‑term dividend sustainability. Overall, the company sits in a sector that is cyclical but benefits from steady demand for industrial distribution, with risk factors anchored by notable volatility and a market‑aligned beta.
Valuation signals are mixed. The market price sits well above the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting overvaluation, yet the price‑to‑earnings multiple is modest compared with peers. Dividend yield is modest and payout is reasonable, but free cash flow is currently flat and debt levels are elevated, raising questions about long‑term dividend sustainability. Overall, the company sits in a sector that is cyclical but benefits from steady demand for industrial distribution, with risk factors anchored by notable volatility and a market‑aligned beta.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Recent earnings miss and softened residential demand
- Technical price near resistance with neutral trend
- Modest dividend yield offering limited upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Continued revenue growth and market‑share gains
- Improving operating margins and solid earnings momentum
- Attractive earnings multiple relative to industry peers
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Valuation gap between market price and intrinsic estimate
- Elevated debt load and zero free cash flow
- Cyclical exposure in industrial distribution balanced by diversified product mix
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.60%
Profit Margin6.13%
P/E Ratio23.1
Debt/Equity92.44
P/B Ratio7.8
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Industry P/E28.9
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI51.7
Support$214.51
Resistance$241.86
MA 20$226.16
MA 50$244.57
MA 200$235.24
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index78.8
Valuation
Fair Value$88.89
Target Price$277.18
Upside/Downside17.91%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.49%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.00
Volatility36.62%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.