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FER:BMEFerrovial SE Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$66.59

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ferrovial SE presents a mixed picture. The stock trades at a price‑earnings multiple that is well above the industry average, indicating an overvalued valuation despite solid revenue growth and high gross margins. Its debt‑to‑equity ratio is extremely high, and the payout ratio approaches three quarters of earnings, raising questions about dividend sustainability. Technical signals are mixed: the price sits below short‑term moving averages, the RSI is in the oversold region, and the MACD shows a bearish divergence, while volume is increasing and the broader trend is labeled bullish.
Given the high 30‑day volatility, low beta, and exposure to multiple geographies and regulatory environments, the risk profile is moderate to high. However, the company’s long‑term infrastructure contracts, stable cash flow, and dividend yield provide a defensive cushion, supporting a more optimistic outlook over a longer horizon.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price hovering near a key support level
  • bearish MACD and low RSI suggest limited upside
  • valuation is stretched relative to peers

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • steady revenue growth and strong gross margins
  • dividend provides modest income
  • high leverage remains a concern

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • long‑term infrastructure contracts underpin cash flow
  • potential for asset rotation and dividend growth
  • sector tailwinds from global infrastructure spending

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.70%
Profit Margin9.22%
P/E Ratio47.6
ROE14.32%
ROA2.37%
Debt/Equity140.01
P/B Ratio7.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$321.4M
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI37.7
Support$64.21
Resistance$74.79
MA 20$71.34
MA 50$69.06
MA 200$60.54
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.11

Valuation

Target Price$71.94
Upside/Downside8.03%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.59%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.59
Volatility30.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.