FDX:NYSE

FedEx Corporation

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$361.10

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

FedEx is trading comfortably above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, reinforcing a bullish trend despite a modestly bearish MACD histogram. The RSI sits near the midpoint, suggesting room for upside without immediate overbought pressure, while volatility remains elevated at roughly 28% over the past month, reflecting the sector’s sensitivity to global shipping dynamics. The stock’s price is perched just above a well‑defined support near $346 and below a resistance around $393, offering a clear technical range. Fundamentally, revenue growth of nearly 14% and an operating margin above 7% underscore solid earnings momentum. Compared with an industry‑average P/E of almost 30, FedEx’s trailing P/E under 20 signals relative cheapness, and the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $487 implies a modest upside of about 4‑5%. Dividend sustainability looks strong with a payout ratio near 31% and a yield of 1.6%. Recent material news – an all‑time intraday high of $381.99, a top‑10% momentum ranking, a newly declared quarterly dividend, and a strategic Investor Day outlining growth initiatives – all reinforce positive sentiment. While the broader tech sector faces valuation headwinds, FedEx benefits from a distinct market narrative focused on logistics resilience. The combination of technical strength, attractive valuation relative to peers, and supportive corporate actions positions the stock for incremental gains. Investors should consider the stock’s upside potential balanced against its current volatility and macro‑risk environment.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price is near a strong support level offering downside protection
  • MACD histogram remains bearish, suggesting short‑term pullback risk
  • Stable dividend provides income while awaiting further upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value indicates modest upside and valuation is below industry peers
  • Revenue growth and improving operating margins support earnings expansion
  • Momentum rankings and recent all‑time high reflect positive market sentiment

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable cash flow generation and low payout ratio underpin dividend reliability
  • Strategic initiatives from Investor Day target long‑term market share gains
  • Integrated global logistics network offers defensive positioning against economic cycles

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.90%
Profit Margin4.81%
P/E Ratio20.0
ROE15.89%
ROA5.07%
P/B Ratio3.0
Op. Cash Flow$8.2B
Free Cash Flow$4.6B
Industry P/E29.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI47.2
Support$346.02
Resistance$392.86
MA 20$377.44
MA 50$339.56
MA 200$265.38
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$487.20
Target Price$377.50
Upside/Downside4.54%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.62%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.05
Volatility28.57%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.