FCVT:NASDAQFirst Trust SSI Strategic Convertible Securities ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$50.06
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The fund is trading at $50.06, comfortably above the calculated support of $47.85 and below the resistance of $52.55, while the 20‑day SMA ($50.41) sits above both the 50‑day ($47.72) and 200‑day ($44.49) averages, indicating a clear bullish trend. YTD performance is strong at +15.35% and the market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone (Fear & Greed Index 89.18), suggesting continued buying pressure. The ETF shows zero tracking error and no premium/discount, which underscores tight index tracking, and the beta of ~0.97 implies volatility close to the broader market. Liquidity is modest with recent volume (13,408) below the 10‑day average (21,300), and the 30‑day volatility of 19.4% signals a fairly active price environment.
On the downside, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD line trails its signal, pointing to short‑term bearish momentum, while volume is on a decreasing trend. The expense ratio of 0.95% is higher than typical equity ETFs, and the 30‑day volatility together with a max drawdown of –8.65% suggest a moderate risk profile. Given these mixed signals, the fund appears positioned for continued upside over medium to long horizons, but investors should monitor short‑term momentum and liquidity constraints.
On the downside, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD line trails its signal, pointing to short‑term bearish momentum, while volume is on a decreasing trend. The expense ratio of 0.95% is higher than typical equity ETFs, and the 30‑day volatility together with a max drawdown of –8.65% suggest a moderate risk profile. Given these mixed signals, the fund appears positioned for continued upside over medium to long horizons, but investors should monitor short‑term momentum and liquidity constraints.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Negative MACD histogram indicating short‑term bearish momentum
- Decreasing trading volume suggesting reduced liquidity
- Price positioned near mid‑range between support and resistance
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish SMA alignment (20‑day > 50‑day > 200‑day)
- Strong YTD return of +15.35% and favorable market sentiment
- Low tracking error and zero premium/discount
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Diversified exposure to convertible securities across sectors
- Modest dividend yield of 1.39% providing income potential
- Beta near 1 with manageable drawdown, supporting steady performance
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.95%
AUM$116.5M
Inception Date2015-11-03
Avg Daily Volume21,300
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield1.39%
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI51.5
Support$47.85
Resistance$52.55
MA 20$50.41
MA 50$47.72
MA 200$44.49
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18
Risk Assessment
Beta0.97
Volatility19.40%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.